howclose.to
PROBLEMS
The complete register · 20 records

The technology register.The technology register.

Everything we track, from the next test to the question it is meant to answer.An alphabetical index of the bottleneck technologies, their fields and the next falsifiable test.

20 of 20 records
1
100-Day VaccinesBiology & HealthNext questionCEPI 3.0 must publish viral-family coverage and demonstrate that a stored prototype can accelerate a novel related-virus response.
A
AGIIntelligence & MachinesNext questionARC-AGI-2 and held-out expert evals resistant to training-data leakage
B
Brain ConnectomicsIntelligence & MachinesNext questionDemonstrate an end-to-end acquisition and proofreading pipeline across a whole mouse region that preserves both local synapses and long-range axons.
C
Cheap Space LaunchEarth & SpaceNext questionFirst Starship upper-stage (Ship) tower-catch attempt, targeted for Flight 13/14 in 2026
Clean HydrogenEnergyNext questionIEA's next annual inventory can test whether the more than 2.5 GW under construction for 2026 actually enters service.
Closed-Loop Life SupportEarth & SpaceNext questionAn integrated flight demonstration must sustain oxygen recovery above 75% while managing methane and carbon deposits.
D
Direct Air CaptureEarth & SpaceNext questionSTRATOS must start sequestration and disclose independently verified net output through a full operating year.
DNA Data StorageIntelligence & MachinesNext questionAn appliance vendor must publish an audited end-to-end dollars-per-TB and bytes-per-second benchmark.
E
Electrochemical AmmoniaEnergyNext questionAn independently measured integrated stack must pair industrial rate with high energy efficiency, selectivity and long life.
Enhanced geothermalEnergyNext questionCape Phase II must show its 21-day representative result across a fleet and disclose full completed-well cost.
Exoplanet BiosignaturesEarth & SpaceNext questionObtain a repeatable spectrum of an Earth-sized habitable-zone world that constrains several gases and its environmental context.
F
Fault-Tolerant QuantumIntelligence & MachinesNext questionRun a multi-logical-qubit universal circuit through repeated correction with a lower total failure rate than its physical implementation.
G
General RoboticsIntelligence & MachinesNext questionIndependent long-horizon manipulation trials on tools and deformable objects, e.g. pi-0.6 field runs
H
Healthy LongevityBiology & HealthNext questionRegulatory qualification of DunedinPACE-class clocks as surrogate endpoints in interventional trials
N
Near-Zero CementMaterialsNext questionA novel-route producer must run a kilotonne-scale plant and publish strength, durability, EPD and cost data.
Nuclear FusionEnergyNext questionSPARC's Q>10 plasma-gain target is an intermediate test; a plant-breakeven demonstration must also account for recirculating power, conversion losses and balance-of-plant loads.
P
Planetary DefenseEarth & SpaceNext questionNEO Surveyor launches and begins its five-year infrared survey of bright and dark objects.
R
Room-temp SuperconductorsMaterialsNext questionIndependent diamond-anvil replication of any superhydride claim above 273 K
S
Speech BCIBiology & HealthNext questionAchieve under-10% listener WER on unseen spontaneous sentences with independently controlled pitch and emphasis.
X
XenotransplantBiology & HealthNext questionPublish a verified 365-day graft-function result, including GFR, rejection episodes and immunosuppression.