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RAPID PANDEMIC VACCINES

The problemsBiology & Health100-Day Vaccines

Updated · July 2026

How close are we to a vaccine in 100 days?Can we beat the next pandemic in 100 days?

Can we beat the next pandemic in 100 days?How close are we to a vaccine in 100 days?

COVID compressed vaccine development from years to months; the goal is a repeatable 100 days from a new pathogen to authorized shots.COVID took 326 days. The target for the next pandemic is 100 - a vaccine before the outbreak spirals.

Current stageEngineeringEngineering a system that works outside the labBuilding a system that works outside the lab
Read the evidence Where we stand
The path so far

Recorded milestones

  1. Modified mRNA obstacle removed

  2. Prototype networks under construction

Open tests · conceptual branches

TODAY
  1. OPEN TEST02 ↗
    Prepare before the outbreakResponse-Ready Prototype LibraryCEPI supports over 75 candidates and platforms, while Lassa, Nipah and MERS candidates have reached Phase II.Maintain human-tested prototype vaccines, assays and immune data across the viral families most likely to generate a pandemic.
  2. OPEN TEST03 ↗
    Approve within 100 daysAuthorization Within 100 DaysCOVID-19 took 326 days to first rollout; no novel-pathogen response has completed the whole pathway in 100 days.Obtain initial authorization for a safe, effective vaccine within 100 days of identifying a genuinely novel pandemic threat.
  3. OPEN TEST04 ↗
    Make doses everywhereManufacturing and Equitable DeliveryCOVAX eventually delivered nearly 2 billion doses, but August 2021 adult coverage was almost 50% in rich countries and under 2% in most poor ones.Have validated, geographically distributed capacity and allocation systems ready to manufacture and deliver initial doses at scale.
TODAY
OPEN TEST02 ↗
Prepare before the outbreakResponse-Ready Prototype LibraryCEPI supports over 75 candidates and platforms, while Lassa, Nipah and MERS candidates have reached Phase II.Maintain human-tested prototype vaccines, assays and immune data across the viral families most likely to generate a pandemic.
OPEN TEST03 ↗
Approve within 100 daysAuthorization Within 100 DaysCOVID-19 took 326 days to first rollout; no novel-pathogen response has completed the whole pathway in 100 days.Obtain initial authorization for a safe, effective vaccine within 100 days of identifying a genuinely novel pandemic threat.
OPEN TEST04 ↗
Make doses everywhereManufacturing and Equitable DeliveryCOVAX eventually delivered nearly 2 billion doses, but August 2021 adult coverage was almost 50% in rich countries and under 2% in most poor ones.Have validated, geographically distributed capacity and allocation systems ready to manufacture and deliver initial doses at scale.
Milestones are in recorded order. Open tests are separate questions, not a forecast.Milestones are in date order. Open tests are separate tests, not a promise.
100-Day VaccinesWhere we stand

The path shows Prototype networks under construction. Open thresholds are separate tests in a conceptual map, not a forecast. No single percentage represents progress.

01 · Where we standWhere we stand

Where we standWhere we stand

The current stage, the evidence recorded, and the single threshold that gates the next stage.The stage reached, the evidence recorded, and the one test still blocking the next step.

What the evidence has shownWhat the evidence has shown

COVID took 326 days. The target for the next pandemic is 100 - a vaccine before the outbreak spirals.COVID compressed vaccine development from years to months; the goal is a repeatable 100 days from a new pathogen to authorized shots.

1 of 4 tests recorded1 of 4 thresholds achieved open
✓Design and test quicklyRapid Platform-to-Clinic TranslationAchieved
Prepare before the outbreakResponse-Ready Prototype LibraryOpen test
Approve within 100 daysAuthorization Within 100 DaysOpen test
Make doses everywhereManufacturing and Equitable DeliveryOpen test

The next testBlocking threshold

Prepare before the outbreakResponse-Ready Prototype Library

CEPI 3.0 must publish viral-family coverage and demonstrate that a stored prototype can accelerate a novel related-virus response.CEPI 3.0 must publish viral-family coverage and demonstrate that a stored prototype can accelerate a novel related-virus response.

02 · Thresholds & evidenceThresholds & evidence

What would count as proof?What would count as proof?

A clear test, the evidence behind it, and the limits of the claim.A clear test, the evidence behind it, and what it still leaves open.

✓Achieved · Mar 2020

Design and test quicklyRapid Platform-to-Clinic Translation

mRNA-1273 entered its first human trial 66 days after the SARS-CoV-2 sequence was released.Move from a released pathogen sequence to a correctly targeted vaccine entering a human trial in substantially less than 100 days.

Recorded result NIH and Moderna dosed the first Phase I participant on day 66, proving rapid clinical entry but not authorization.

Next test A future Disease X response must repeat rapid entry using a prequalified platform without sacrificing antigen quality or safety.

SOURCE RECORD

NIH first mRNA-1273 trial report ↗

Still to demonstrateWhat this does not establishA separate system can still have different conditions and results.The named measurement has no wider implication until the supporting system test is also shown.

View every evidence record

Achieved

Design and test quicklyRapid Platform-to-Clinic Translation

mRNA-1273 entered its first human trial 66 days after the SARS-CoV-2 sequence was released.Move from a released pathogen sequence to a correctly targeted vaccine entering a human trial in substantially less than 100 days.

Recorded result: Mar 2020 · NIH and Moderna dosed the first Phase I participant on day 66, proving rapid clinical entry but not authorization.

Next test: A future Disease X response must repeat rapid entry using a prequalified platform without sacrificing antigen quality or safety.

NIH first mRNA-1273 trial report ↗

Open test

Prepare before the outbreakResponse-Ready Prototype Library

CEPI supports over 75 candidates and platforms, while Lassa, Nipah and MERS candidates have reached Phase II.Maintain human-tested prototype vaccines, assays and immune data across the viral families most likely to generate a pandemic.

Next test: CEPI 3.0 must publish viral-family coverage and demonstrate that a stored prototype can accelerate a novel related-virus response.

Open test

Approve within 100 daysAuthorization Within 100 Days

COVID-19 took 326 days to first rollout; no novel-pathogen response has completed the whole pathway in 100 days.Obtain initial authorization for a safe, effective vaccine within 100 days of identifying a genuinely novel pandemic threat.

Next test: The next qualifying outbreak must reach authorization by day 100 with prospectively defined safety, efficacy and manufacturing evidence.

Open test

Make doses everywhereManufacturing and Equitable Delivery

COVAX eventually delivered nearly 2 billion doses, but August 2021 adult coverage was almost 50% in rich countries and under 2% in most poor ones.Have validated, geographically distributed capacity and allocation systems ready to manufacture and deliver initial doses at scale.

Next test: By 2031 CEPI partners must document access to 1-2 billion doses of usable capacity and test activation, allocation and cross-border release.

03 · The recordThe record

The record behind the verdictThe record behind the verdict

Major milestones and smaller context events share one source-linked record. Scheduled targets are marked separately from recorded events.Milestones, smaller events and setbacks share one sourced record. Scheduled targets are marked separately from recorded events.

Event key
TheoryExperimentFundingSetbackPolicyDeployment Future / scheduled
1796-19322 events1 shown

Learning to Induce Immunity

This record spans “Jenner tests cowpox protection” to “Pasteur prevents rabies”.

1796
Jenner tests cowpox protectionExperiment
Edward Jenner inoculated eight-year-old James Phipps with cowpox and later showed protection against smallpox.
Edward Jenner
1885
Pasteur prevents rabies
Louis Pasteur gave Joseph Meister a course of 13 post-exposure injections; Meister survived rabies exposure.
Louis Pasteur and colleagues
1933-19602 events1 shown

Vaccines Become Industrial

This record spans “Influenza virus isolated” to “Flu vaccine licensed”.

1961-20167 events4 shown

Programmable Platforms Emerge

This record spans “Messenger RNA defined” to “Ebola vaccines arrive late”.

1976
Swine-flu campaign haltedSetback
After over 40 million vaccinations, officials paused the campaign over roughly one excess GBS case per 100,000 recipients.
US federal health agencies
1990
Injected mRNA makes protein
Researchers showed in-vitro-transcribed mRNA could direct protein production after injection into mouse muscle.
University of Wisconsin researchers
2005
Modified mRNA reduces inflammationExperiment
Karikó and Weissman showed modified nucleosides suppressed unwanted inflammatory sensing and enabled greater protein production.
Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman
2009
H1N1 vaccines approvedDeployment
FDA approved four vaccines 153 days after first detection, using strain-change supplements to established influenza licenses.
FDA and four vaccine manufacturers
2014
Ebola vaccines arrive lateSetback
The 2013-2016 West African epidemic killed more than 11,300 people before an efficacy trial established vaccine protection.
WHO and West African health systems
2017-20202 events0 shown

Preparedness Meets a Pandemic

This record spans “CEPI launches at Davos” to “First Ebola vaccine licensed”.

2019
First Ebola vaccine licensed
FDA approved Ervebo, the first licensed vaccine against disease caused by Zaire ebolavirus.
Merck and US FDA
2021-203113 events2 shown

The Hundred-Day Mission

This record spans “CureVac misses efficacy bar” to “CEPI 3.0 begins” and includes scheduled targets.

2021
CureVac misses efficacy bar
CureVac's first-generation mRNA candidate reported 48% efficacy in its Phase 2b/3 final analysis.
CureVac
2023
First self-amplifying mRNA vaccine approved
Japan approved ARCT-154, validating an RNA platform designed to obtain more antigen expression from a smaller dose; it was not a 100-day Disease X response.
Arcturus Therapeutics, CSL and Meiji Seika Pharma
2024
WHO prequalifies first mpox vaccine
MVA-BN prequalification enabled UN procurement during the African emergency, but accelerated deployment of an existing vaccine rather than development of a new one.
World Health Organization and Bavarian Nordic
2025
FDA suspends live chikungunya vaccine
FDA suspended IXCHIQ's licence after serious chikungunya-like adverse events, including a vaccine-strain-positive fatal encephalitis case, while clinical benefit remained unconfirmed.
US Food and Drug Administration and Valneva
2026
Korea tests the 100-day pathway
A national tabletop exercise simulated detection, trials, manufacture, regulation and licensure for a fictional novel virus; it tested coordination, not vaccine performance.
Korean health agencies, CEPI, IVI and industry
2026
Platforms advance, mission unprovenExperimentWe are here
CEPI reports 75+ supported candidates and platforms, with Lassa, Nipah and MERS vaccines in Phase II, but no 100-day authorization.
CEPI and partner developers
2027
CEPI 3.0 beginsFundingTarget
CEPI's 2027-2031 strategy is scheduled to begin with a $3.6 billion plan, of which $2.5 billion was still being sought in 2026.
CEPI and funders
2020-20314 events3 shown

Additional records

This record spans “Coronavirus genome released” to “Distributed capacity target matures” and includes scheduled targets.

2031
Distributed capacity target maturesDeploymentTarget
CEPI targets access to 1-2 billion vaccine doses of regional manufacturing capacity across multiple technologies by end-2031.
CEPI and regional manufacturing partners
— end of record · 30 events shown —
04 · The dataThe data

The data behind the verdictThe data behind the verdict

Read each measure with its units, conditions, uncertainty and source; targets remain distinct from observations.Read each chart with its conditions, limits and source. Future targets remain distinct from recorded results.

Open figure in archive: Approval came on day 153, first US doses on day 173 and 100 million available doses on day 247; authorization did not mean immediate supply.Open figure in archive: The platform reached a human trial quickly, but efficacy trials, safety follow-up, manufacturing validation and review consumed most of the 343 days to Moderna's US EUA.Open figure in archive: Global procurement eventually reached enormous scale, but the first African shipment came 74 days after initial rollout and the 2026 value is CEPI's rounded 'nearly 2 billion' total.Open figure in archive: Manufacturing and delivery scale increased dramatically, but the points cover different populations, time windows and products and should not be treated as a productivity curve.Open figure in archive: COVID-19's record vaccine rollout was still more than three times the 100-day objective.Open figure in archive: By August 2021, adult full-vaccination coverage differed by more than 25-fold between income groups.Open figure in archive: The 1976 campaign vaccinated over 40 million people despite detecting an excess GBS risk near one per 100,000 recipients.Open figure in archive: The H1N1 platform produced first deployable vaccines in 20 weeks versus roughly 26 weeks for traditional seasonal scale-up.
Days from threat identification to initial vaccine authorizationDays from threat identification to initial vaccine authorization
Scale

Novel H1N1: first US detection April 15 to FDA approvals September 15 · 153 days · 2009 · verification unspecified

Days from threat identification to initial vaccine authorization over time, with measured values, projected values, and a goal at 100 days.100150200250300350Days from threat identification to initial vaccine auth… · daysYear20092020GOAL 100 · CEPI and G7 100 Days MissionNovel H1N1: first US detect…COVID-19: genome release Ja…~226 days to goal
NOTE - This is the candidate file's recommended headline metric, but the two observations are not an apples-to-apples technology curve. The 2009 H1N1 vaccines used established seasonal-influenza plants and strain-change regulatory supplements; COVID-19 required a new coronavirus product and large efficacy trials. Both points stop at first authorization or rollout and therefore exclude the additional time required for mass manufacturing, allocation and population coverage.
View data table
All metric observations
DateValueStatusCondition / labelVerificationCICensoringSource
2009153 daysobservedNovel H1N1: first US detection April 15 to FDA approvals September 15unspecified—noneCDC 2009 H1N1 pandemic timeline
2020326 daysobservedCOVID-19: genome release January 10 to first vaccine rolloutunspecified—noneCEPI 100 Days Mission
AS OF July 2026
View every data figure
Days from threat identification to initial vaccine authorizationDays from threat identification to initial vaccine authorization
Scale

Novel H1N1: first US detection April 15 to FDA approvals September 15 · 153 days · 2009 · verification unspecified

Days from threat identification to initial vaccine authorization over time, with measured values, projected values, and a goal at 100 days.100150200250300350Days from threat identification to initial vaccine auth… · daysYear20092020GOAL 100 · CEPI and G7 100 Days MissionNovel H1N1: first US detect…COVID-19: genome release Ja…~226 days to goal
NOTE - This is the candidate file's recommended headline metric, but the two observations are not an apples-to-apples technology curve. The 2009 H1N1 vaccines used established seasonal-influenza plants and strain-change regulatory supplements; COVID-19 required a new coronavirus product and large efficacy trials. Both points stop at first authorization or rollout and therefore exclude the additional time required for mass manufacturing, allocation and population coverage.
View data table
All metric observations
DateValueStatusCondition / labelVerificationCICensoringSource
2009153 daysobservedNovel H1N1: first US detection April 15 to FDA approvals September 15unspecified—noneCDC 2009 H1N1 pandemic timeline
2020326 daysobservedCOVID-19: genome release January 10 to first vaccine rolloutunspecified—noneCEPI 100 Days Mission
AS OF July 2026
Approval came on day 153, first US doses on day 173 and 100 million available doses on day 247; authorization did not mean immediate supply.Approval came on day 153, first US doses on day 173 and 100 million available doses on day 247; authorization did not mean immediate supply.

linear scale · days by year

2009 H1N1 response milestones after first detection · 0 days · Apr 2009 · verification unspecified

Approval came on day 153, first US doses on day 173 and 100 million available doses on day 247; authorization did not mean immediate supply.2009 H1N1 response milestones after first detection: 0 days · Apr 20092009 H1N1 response milestones after first detection: 153 days · Sep 20092009 H1N1 response milestones after first detection: 173 days · Oct 2009247 days · Dec 20092009 H1N1 response milestones after first detection: 247 days · Dec 2009Year
Log-scale line joins each new longest record; all observations remain individual dots.

First record

Apr 2009

0 days · Apr 2009

observed · Verification unspecified

Latest record

Dec 2009

247 days · Dec 2009

observed · Verification unspecified

View data table
All plotted observations
SeriesDateValueStatusCondition / labelVerificationCICensoringSource
2009 H1N1 response milestones after first detection2009.290 daysobserved2009 H1N1 response milestones after first detectionunspecified—noneCDC 2009 H1N1 pandemic timeline
2009 H1N1 response milestones after first detection2009.71153 daysobserved2009 H1N1 response milestones after first detectionunspecified—noneCDC 2009 H1N1 pandemic timeline
2009 H1N1 response milestones after first detection2009.76173 daysobserved2009 H1N1 response milestones after first detectionunspecified—noneCDC 2009 H1N1 pandemic timeline
2009 H1N1 response milestones after first detection2009.96247 daysobserved2009 H1N1 response milestones after first detectionunspecified—noneCDC 2009 H1N1 pandemic timeline
AS OF July 2026
The platform reached a human trial quickly, but efficacy trials, safety follow-up, manufacturing validation and review consumed most of the 343 days to Moderna's US EUA.The platform reached a human trial quickly, but efficacy trials, safety follow-up, manufacturing validation and review consumed most of the 343 days to Moderna's US EUA.

linear scale · days by year

COVID-19 vaccine response milestones after genome release · 0 days · Jan 2020 · verification unspecified

The platform reached a human trial quickly, but efficacy trials, safety follow-up, manufacturing validation and review consumed most of the 343 days to Moderna's US EUA.COVID-19 vaccine response milestones after genome release: 0 days · Jan 2020COVID-19 vaccine response milestones after genome release: 66 days · Mar 2020COVID-19 vaccine response milestones after genome release: 326 days · Dec 2020343 days · Dec 2020COVID-19 vaccine response milestones after genome release: 343 days · Dec 2020Year
Log-scale line joins each new longest record; all observations remain individual dots.

First record

Jan 2020

0 days · Jan 2020

observed · Verification unspecified

Latest record

Dec 2020

343 days · Dec 2020

observed · Verification unspecified

View data table
All plotted observations
SeriesDateValueStatusCondition / labelVerificationCICensoringSource
COVID-19 vaccine response milestones after genome release2020.030 daysobservedCOVID-19 vaccine response milestones after genome releaseunspecified—noneCEPI 100 Days Mission
COVID-19 vaccine response milestones after genome release2020.2166 daysobservedCOVID-19 vaccine response milestones after genome releaseunspecified—noneNIH first mRNA-1273 trial report
COVID-19 vaccine response milestones after genome release2020.92326 daysobservedCOVID-19 vaccine response milestones after genome releaseunspecified—noneCEPI 100 Days Mission
COVID-19 vaccine response milestones after genome release2020.97343 daysobservedCOVID-19 vaccine response milestones after genome releaseunspecified—noneSeries · COVID-19 vaccine response milestones after genome release
AS OF July 2026
Global procurement eventually reached enormous scale, but the first African shipment came 74 days after initial rollout and the 2026 value is CEPI's rounded 'nearly 2 billion' total.Global procurement eventually reached enormous scale, but the first African shipment came 74 days after initial rollout and the 2026 value is CEPI's rounded 'nearly 2 billion' total.

log scale · million doses by year

COVAX cumulative delivered doses · 0.6 million doses · Feb 2021 · verification unspecified

Global procurement eventually reached enormous scale, but the first African shipment came 74 days after initial rollout and the 2026 value is CEPI's rounded 'nearly 2 billion' total.COVAX cumulative delivered doses: 0.6 million doses · Feb 2021COVAX cumulative delivered doses: 1,300 million doses · May 20222,000 million doses · Jan 2026COVAX cumulative delivered doses: 2,000 million doses · Jan 2026Year
Log-scale line joins each new longest record; all observations remain individual dots.

First record

Feb 2021

0.6 million doses · Feb 2021

observed · Verification unspecified

Latest record

Jan 2026

2,000 million doses · Jan 2026

observed · Verification unspecified

View data table
All plotted observations
SeriesDateValueStatusCondition / labelVerificationCICensoringSource
COVAX cumulative delivered doses2021.150.6 million dosesobservedCOVAX cumulative delivered dosesunspecified—noneWHO first COVAX shipment
COVAX cumulative delivered doses2022.381300 million dosesobservedCOVAX cumulative delivered dosesunspecified—noneSeries · COVAX cumulative delivered doses
COVAX cumulative delivered doses20262000 million dosesobservedCOVAX cumulative delivered dosesunspecified—noneCEPI progress and results
AS OF July 2026
Manufacturing and delivery scale increased dramatically, but the points cover different populations, time windows and products and should not be treated as a productivity curve.Manufacturing and delivery scale increased dramatically, but the points cover different populations, time windows and products and should not be treated as a productivity curve.

Independent records

Selected emergency vaccination campaign scale log scale · million doses or people vaccinated

log scale · million doses or people vaccinated
197643 million doses or people vaccinated
2010350 million doses or people vaccinated
2021.776,400 million doses or people vaccinated
observed self-reported target / pathway right-censored lower bound
View data table
All plotted observations
SeriesDateValueStatusCondition / labelVerificationCICensoringSource
Selected emergency vaccination campaign scale197643 million doses or people vaccinatedobservedSelected emergency vaccination campaign scaleunspecified—noneSeries · Selected emergency vaccination campaign scale
Selected emergency vaccination campaign scale2010350 million doses or people vaccinatedobservedSelected emergency vaccination campaign scaleunspecified—noneSeries · Selected emergency vaccination campaign scale
Selected emergency vaccination campaign scale2021.776400 million doses or people vaccinatedobservedSelected emergency vaccination campaign scaleunspecified—noneSeries · Selected emergency vaccination campaign scale
AS OF July 2026
COVID-19's record vaccine rollout was still more than three times the 100-day objective.COVID-19's record vaccine rollout was still more than three times the 100-day objective.
COVID-19 first rollout326 days
−226 days · 0.31× of A
Mission target100 days · targetThe 100-day figure is a mission goal, not the observed rollout.The 100-day mission target is a programme goal, not the observed COVID-19 rollout.

Each square = 10 days

COVID-19 first rollout326 days
Mission target100 days · targetThe 100-day figure is a mission goal, not the observed rollout.The 100-day mission target is a programme goal, not the observed COVID-19 rollout.
226 days less from mission target than from covid-19 first rollout
View data table
All aligned comparisons
ClaimABSource / provenance
COVID-19's record vaccine rollout was still more than three times the 100-day objective.326 days · COVID-19 first rollout100 days · Mission target · target
The 100-day figure is a mission goal, not the observed rollout.The 100-day mission target is a programme goal, not the observed COVID-19 rollout.		CEPI 100 Days Mission
AS OF July 2026
By August 2021, adult full-vaccination coverage differed by more than 25-fold between income groups.By August 2021, adult full-vaccination coverage differed by more than 25-fold between income groups.

By August 2021, adult full-vaccination coverage differed by more than 25-fold between income groups.

High-income countries50 % of adults, approximately
Most low-income countries2 % of adults, less than
Each value is scaled against zero in its own unit; bar length is not a cross-unit comparison.
View data table
All aligned comparisons
ClaimABSource / provenance
By August 2021, adult full-vaccination coverage differed by more than 25-fold between income groups.50 % of adults, approximately · High-income countries2 % of adults, less than · Most low-income countriesWHO COVID-19 vaccine-equity statement
AS OF July 2026
The 1976 campaign vaccinated over 40 million people despite detecting an excess GBS risk near one per 100,000 recipients.The 1976 campaign vaccinated over 40 million people despite detecting an excess GBS risk near one per 100,000 recipients.

The 1976 campaign vaccinated over 40 million people despite detecting an excess GBS risk near one per 100,000 recipients.

People vaccinated40 million, more than
Additional GBS risk1 case per 100,000 vaccinees
Each value is scaled against zero in its own unit; bar length is not a cross-unit comparison.
View data table
All aligned comparisons
ClaimABSource / provenance
The 1976 campaign vaccinated over 40 million people despite detecting an excess GBS risk near one per 100,000 recipients.40 million, more than · People vaccinated1 case per 100,000 vaccinees · Additional GBS riskCDC historical vaccine-safety concerns
AS OF July 2026
The H1N1 platform produced first deployable vaccines in 20 weeks versus roughly 26 weeks for traditional seasonal scale-up.The H1N1 platform produced first deployable vaccines in 20 weeks versus roughly 26 weeks for traditional seasonal scale-up.

The H1N1 platform produced first deployable vaccines in 20 weeks versus roughly 26 weeks for traditional seasonal scale-up.

2009 H1N1 first deployment20 weeks
Typical large-scale flu production26 weeks, approximately
Each value is scaled against zero in its own unit; bar length is not a cross-unit comparison.
View data table
All aligned comparisons
ClaimABSource / provenance
The H1N1 platform produced first deployable vaccines in 20 weeks versus roughly 26 weeks for traditional seasonal scale-up.20 weeks · 2009 H1N1 first deployment26 weeks, approximately · Typical large-scale flu productionComparison · The H1N1 platform produced first deployable vaccines in 20 weeks versus roughly 26 weeks for traditional seasonal scale-up.
AS OF July 2026

Methods & conditions

Under the measurement.

The boundary of a measurement changes what it means.

Technical note 1 of 6

What the 100-day target includes

Method and conditions

The target is not merely “design in 100 days”: CEPI defines it as a safe, effective vaccine ready for initial authorization and manufacturing at scale within 100 days of threat recognition.

Source notes
CEPI

Technical notes and sources

Each note keeps its authored method, conditions and citations available for review.

What the 100-day target includes

The target is not merely “design in 100 days”: CEPI defines it as a safe, effective vaccine ready for initial authorization and manufacturing at scale within 100 days of threat recognition.

CEPI
What ARCT-154 demonstrated

ARCT-154 carries replicase instructions that amplify its RNA inside cells; it does not create an infectious, self-propagating virus. In an 828-person randomized booster trial, day-28 ancestral-strain neutralizing GMTs were 5,641 versus 3,934 for BNT162b2, a GMT ratio of 1.43. These immunogenicity results do not establish faster Disease X authorization.

The Lancet Infectious Diseases
What enabled Rwanda’s ten-day start

Rwanda’s ten-day Marburg result depended on prior Phase I data, manufactured doses and a pre-agreed WHO protocol. More than 1,700 high-risk people had been vaccinated by the end of October 2024, but the open-label study lacked a negative-control arm and could not robustly estimate efficacy.

npj Vaccines
MVA-BN was reviewed, not newly developed

WHO’s MVA-BN prequalification followed review by the EMA rather than fresh vaccine development. WHO estimated pre-exposure effectiveness at 76% for one dose and 82% for two, while requesting continued evidence collection.

WHO
Why 100 days needs new evidence paths

A published process analysis concluded that applying known COVID-era best practices would compress a comparable development programme only to roughly 250 days; reaching 100 days would probably require validated immune correlates that permit initial authorization before conventional disease-endpoint efficacy data mature.

New England Journal of Medicine
The pipeline is not converting late-stage

The 2024 readiness scorecard found early pipeline activity but little late-stage conversion: seven priority-pathogen vaccines entered Phase I, only one advanced to Phase III, and non-COVID diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccine R&D funding had fallen 31% from 2022 to 2023.

International Pandemic Preparedness Secretariat
05 · What it unlocksWhat it unlocks

If the remaining tests pass.If the remaining tests pass.

Downstream capabilities remain conditional on results that are not yet in.These are possible next capabilities, conditional on results that are not yet in.

TODAY
  1. PASSED · Mar 202001 ↗
    Design and test quicklyRapid Platform-to-Clinic TranslationmRNA-1273 entered its first human trial 66 days after the SARS-CoV-2 sequence was released.Move from a released pathogen sequence to a correctly targeted vaccine entering a human trial in substantially less than 100 days.
  2. OPEN TEST02 ↗
    Prepare before the outbreakResponse-Ready Prototype LibraryCEPI supports over 75 candidates and platforms, while Lassa, Nipah and MERS candidates have reached Phase II.Maintain human-tested prototype vaccines, assays and immune data across the viral families most likely to generate a pandemic.
  3. OPEN TEST03 ↗
    Approve within 100 daysAuthorization Within 100 DaysCOVID-19 took 326 days to first rollout; no novel-pathogen response has completed the whole pathway in 100 days.Obtain initial authorization for a safe, effective vaccine within 100 days of identifying a genuinely novel pandemic threat.
  4. OPEN TEST04 ↗
    Make doses everywhereManufacturing and Equitable DeliveryCOVAX eventually delivered nearly 2 billion doses, but August 2021 adult coverage was almost 50% in rich countries and under 2% in most poor ones.Have validated, geographically distributed capacity and allocation systems ready to manufacture and deliver initial doses at scale.
PASSED · Mar 202001 ↗
Design and test quicklyRapid Platform-to-Clinic TranslationmRNA-1273 entered its first human trial 66 days after the SARS-CoV-2 sequence was released.Move from a released pathogen sequence to a correctly targeted vaccine entering a human trial in substantially less than 100 days.
TODAY
OPEN TEST02 ↗
Prepare before the outbreakResponse-Ready Prototype LibraryCEPI supports over 75 candidates and platforms, while Lassa, Nipah and MERS candidates have reached Phase II.Maintain human-tested prototype vaccines, assays and immune data across the viral families most likely to generate a pandemic.
OPEN TEST03 ↗
Approve within 100 daysAuthorization Within 100 DaysCOVID-19 took 326 days to first rollout; no novel-pathogen response has completed the whole pathway in 100 days.Obtain initial authorization for a safe, effective vaccine within 100 days of identifying a genuinely novel pandemic threat.
OPEN TEST04 ↗
Make doses everywhereManufacturing and Equitable DeliveryCOVAX eventually delivered nearly 2 billion doses, but August 2021 adult coverage was almost 50% in rich countries and under 2% in most poor ones.Have validated, geographically distributed capacity and allocation systems ready to manufacture and deliver initial doses at scale.

Possible, if the open tests pass.

  1. Outbreak containment before global spread

    This is a possible benefit only if outbreak containment before global spread works safely, reliably and at useful scale.Potential benefit only if the stated use (Outbreak containment before global spread) is demonstrated with evidence for safety, reliability, affordability and scale.

  2. Reusable vaccine factories

    This is a possible benefit only if reusable vaccine factories works safely, reliably and at useful scale.Potential benefit only if the stated use (Reusable vaccine factories) is demonstrated with evidence for safety, reliability, affordability and scale.

  3. Smaller social and economic shocks

    This is a possible benefit only if smaller social and economic shocks works safely, reliably and at useful scale.Potential benefit only if the stated use (Smaller social and economic shocks) is demonstrated with evidence for safety, reliability, affordability and scale.

These are possible outcomes, if the open tests pass. They are conditional, not promises.
06 · The players & the moneyThe players & the money

Meet the builders.Meet the builders.

The organisations, their approaches, and the evidence behind them.The teams doing the work, the money around them, and what the record can support.

Global · nonprofit

CEPI

Coordinates vaccine platforms, pathogen-family R&D and preparedness networks around the 100 Days Mission

Funding contextFunding not recorded in this record.Seeking $2.5B in new funding for 2027-2031; this is not money already raised.
Named investorsInvestors not recorded in this record.

Capital is context, not a demonstration.

Company source ↗
View every builder record

CEPI

Global · nonprofit · Coordinates vaccine platforms, pathogen-family R&D and preparedness networks around the 100 Days Mission

Funding: Funding not recorded in this record.

Seeking $2.5B in new funding for 2027-2031; this is not money already raised.

Company source ↗

BioNTech

Germany / Rwanda · company · mRNA platform developer and operator of the BioNTainer manufacturing site in Kigali

Funding: CEPI commitment · up to $145M · Oct 2025

Named investors: CEPI

The commitment advances the Kigali facility; output remains product- and authorization-dependent.

Company source ↗

Sabin Vaccine Institute

USA / Rwanda · nonprofit · Develops a Marburg vaccine candidate and supplied Rwanda's rapid outbreak-response trial

Funding: Funding not recorded in this record.

Rapid trial activation demonstrated logistics, not vaccine efficacy.

Company source ↗

International Vaccine Institute

Republic of Korea · nonprofit · Provides technical services for epidemic-vaccine development and trial readiness

Funding: Funding not recorded in this record.

Company source ↗

Africa CDC / PAVM

African Union · government · Coordinates regional vaccine-manufacturing capacity, procurement and market shaping

Funding: Funding not recorded in this record.

60% local production is a 2040 target, not current output.

Company source ↗

EU HERA

European Union · government · Maintains emergency countermeasure preparedness, procurement and EU FAB surge manufacturing

Funding: Funding not recorded in this record.

Company source ↗
07 · SourcesSources

Follow the evidence.Follow the evidence.

56 sources — every figure on this page traces to one.56 sources — every figure on this page traces to one.

Source · what this page citesScope and limits
  1. 01

    CEPI 100 Days Mission

    Read source ↗cepi.net
    Used on this page
    All 13 uses across 9 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  2. 02

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  3. 03

    CEPI 3.0 strategy

    Read source ↗static.cepi.net

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  4. 04

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  5. 05

    G7 100 Days Mission implementation report

    Read source ↗gov.uk

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  6. 06

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  7. 07

    WHO pandemic influenza manufacturing timeline

    Read source ↗who.int

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  8. 08

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  9. 09

    Nobel committee mRNA-vaccine scientific background

    Read source ↗nobelprize.org
    Used on this page
    All 1 use across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  10. 10

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  11. 11

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  12. 12

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  13. 13

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  14. 14

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  15. 15

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  16. 16

    Timeline · Messenger RNA defined

    Read source ↗nobelprize.org
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  17. 17

    Timeline · Injected mRNA makes protein

    Read source ↗pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  18. 18

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  19. 19

    Timeline · Ebola vaccines arrive late

    Read source ↗who.int
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  20. 20

    Timeline · CEPI launches at Davos

    Read source ↗weforum.org
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  21. 21

    Timeline · CureVac misses efficacy bar

    Read source ↗curevac.com
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  22. 22

    Timeline · G7 backs hundred days

    Read source ↗gov.uk
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  23. 23

    Timeline · First self-amplifying mRNA vaccine approved

    Read source ↗nature.com
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  24. 24

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  25. 25

    Timeline · WHO prequalifies first mpox vaccine

    Read source ↗who.int
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  26. 26

    Timeline · Marburg trial opens in ten days

    Read source ↗nature.com
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  27. 27

    Timeline · Second chikungunya vaccine is approved

    Read source ↗fda.gov
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  28. 28

    Timeline · FDA suspends live chikungunya vaccine

    Read source ↗fda.gov
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  29. 29

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  30. 30

    Timeline · Pathogen-family roadmaps launch

    Read source ↗who.int
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  31. 31

    Timeline · CEPI 3.0 begins

    Read source ↗cepi.net
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  32. 32

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  33. 33

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  34. 34

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  35. 35

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  36. 36

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  37. 37

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  38. 38

    Engineer note · What ARCT-154 demonstrated

    Read source ↗pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  39. 39

    Engineer note · Why 100 days needs new evidence paths

    Read source ↗nejm.org

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  40. 40

    Engineer note · The pipeline is not converting late-stage

    Read source ↗ippsecretariat.org

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  41. 41

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  42. 42

    companies · BioNTech

    Read source ↗biontech.com
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  43. 43

    companies · Sabin Vaccine Institute

    Read source ↗sabin.org
    Used on this page
    All 1 use across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  44. 44

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  45. 45

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  46. 46

    companies · EU HERA

    Read source ↗commission.europa.eu
    Used on this page
    All 1 use across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  47. 47

    people · Katalin Karikó

    Read source ↗nobelprize.org
    Used on this page
    All 1 use across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  48. 48

    market · ~$3.6B modeled five-year CEPI 3.0 program

    Read source ↗static.cepi.net
    Used on this page
    All 1 use across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  49. 49

    market · 325M doses/year of reserved EU FAB surge capacity

    Read source ↗commission.europa.eu
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  50. 50

    geography · Africa / Rwanda

    Read source ↗biontech.com
    Used on this page
    All 1 use across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  51. 51

    geography · Republic of Korea

    Read source ↗ivi.int
    Used on this page
    All 1 use across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  52. 52

    CEPI official site

    Read source ↗cepi.net

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  53. 53

    BioNTech official site

    Read source ↗biontech.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  54. 54

    Sabin Vaccine Institute official site

    Read source ↗sabin.org

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  55. 55

    International Vaccine Institute official site

    Read source ↗ivi.int

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  56. 56

    Africa CDC / PAVM official site

    Read source ↗africacdc.org

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

Sources describe evidence. Inclusion is not endorsement.