Biology & Health · Updated July 2026Momentum · steady ↔

How close are we to extending healthy human lifespan?Can we stay healthy for much longer?

or, simply: Can we stay healthy for much longer?or, precisely: How close are we to extending healthy human lifespan?

Multiple interventions now reproducibly slow aging in mice, but no treatment has yet shown a large, durable extension of healthy lifespan in humans.We can slow parts of aging in animals; proving that people gain many healthy years will take long, careful trials that are only just starting.

We are here

First partial reprogramming dosed in a human (ER-100) - Life Biosciences dosed the first patient in a Phase 1 trial of ER-100, an OSK partial-reprogramming therapy injected into the eye - the first reprogramming therapy to reach humans. Next up - ER-100 Phase 1 safety readout (expected 2027).

01 · Where we stand

State of playWhere healthy longevity stands right now

The current stage, the honest metric, and the single threshold that gates the next stage. Each threshold is a falsifiable claim with a named next test.How far up the ladder we've climbed, the honest verdict, and the one thing blocking the next step.

The five stagesMaturity ladder

Deployed

Out in the real worldDeployed at scale

Scaling

Making it cheap enough at scaleScaling toward competitive cost

Engineering

Building one that pays for itselfEngineering a system that pays back

Lab demo← HERE

Shown to work in a labDemonstrated in the laboratory

Theoretical

The idea is worked out on paperTheoretical basis established

The honest verdictVerified state

We can slow parts of aging in animals; proving that people gain many healthy years will take long, careful trials that are only just starting.Multiple interventions now reproducibly slow aging in mice, but no treatment has yet shown a large, durable extension of healthy lifespan in humans.

26Best result so farRapamycin 42 ppm, +23% male / +26% female - largest reproducible ITP result

50~+50% - match the best historical caloric-restriction results

Blocking the next stepBlocking threshold

Measure aging before decades passValidated aging biomarkers Next test: Regulatory qualification of DunedinPACE-class clocks as surrogate endpoints in interventional trials

The verdict, in five rungsHow far up the ladder↓ next — the thresholds & the gap

01 · The evidence

The thresholds that gate the next stageWhat has to happen next

Each threshold is a falsifiable claim with a named next test; the gap chart shows how far today's metric sits from the goal.Each row is one thing that has to be proven — and how far today's number is from the target.

Slow aging in mammalsAdd healthy time to an animal's life✓ Achieved · 2009

100%

Proven byNIA Interventions Testing Program: rapamycin extends mouse lifespan, later replicated many times

Validated aging biomarkersMeasure aging before decades passEarly

30%

Next testRegulatory qualification of DunedinPACE-class clocks as surrogate endpoints in interventional trials

Human healthspan efficacyKeep people healthier for longerEarly

12%

Next testVITAL-H Phase 3 (726 adults, 3 repurposed drugs) and larger geroscience trials with clinical outcomes

Safe human rejuvenationRepair old tissue safelyEarly

Next testLife Biosciences ER-100 Phase 1 safety and visual-function readout in optic neuropathy

THRESHOLDS - Thresholds for Healthy Longevity.

Scale

NOTE - All results are in mice and NONE are validated in humans; the effects are also strongly sex-dependent.

02 · How we got here

The record behind the verdict

Major events set large; context events set small but never hidden. Everything below the TODAY rule is a schedule, not a result.

1935-19921 event0 shown

Dietary and genetic foundations

Dietary and genetic foundations begins with calorie restriction extends rat lifespan. The result established the next question for the field.

1935

Calorie restriction extends rat lifespan

Clive McCay showed that restricting rats' food intake (without malnutrition) raised maximal lifespan by roughly a third, the founding result of aging-intervention research.

Clive McCay, Cornell

1993-20156 events2 shown

Pathways and drugs

Pathways and drugs moved the field from a single-gene mutation doubles worm lifespan to telomerase gene therapy extends mouse lifespan. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.

1993

A single-gene mutation doubles worm lifespanExperiment

Cynthia Kenyon reported that a daf-2 mutation more than doubled the lifespan of the worm C. elegans, proving in worms that aging is genetically regulated.

Cynthia Kenyon, UCSF

2002

NIA Interventions Testing Program founded

The National Institute on Aging launched a rigorous multi-site program to test whether candidate drugs extend lifespan in genetically diverse mice using standardized, replicated protocols.

National Institute on Aging

2006

Resveratrol touted as a longevity molecule

A lab reported resveratrol improved survival of mice on a high-calorie diet, igniting the sirtuin/resveratrol wave and a $720M biotech acquisition (in mice).

Sinclair et al., Harvard

2009

Rapamycin extends mouse lifespan (ITP)Experiment

The NIA ITP showed the mTOR inhibitor rapamycin extended lifespan of genetically heterogeneous mice even when started in old age - the first drug to do so in a rigorous replicated test (in mice).

NIA ITP (Harrison et al.)

2011

Resveratrol fails to extend lifespan in rigorous test

The same ITP that validated rapamycin found resveratrol did not extend mouse lifespan; the mechanism was disputed and GSK later shut the Sirtris program - a cautionary tale of overpromising.

NIA ITP (Miller et al.)

2012

Telomerase gene therapy extends mouse lifespan

An AAV vector delivering the TERT telomerase gene to adult and old mice increased median lifespan by up to 24% without raising cancer rates (in mice).

Maria Blasco, CNIO

2016-20213 events1 shown

Cellular rejuvenation

Cellular rejuvenation moved the field from partial reprogramming rejuvenates cells in living mice to first-in-human senolytic trial. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.

2016

Partial reprogramming rejuvenates cells in living mice

Cyclic, short-term expression of Yamanaka factors reversed hallmarks of aging and extended lifespan in progeroid mice, founding the cellular-rejuvenation field (in mice).

Belmonte, Salk Institute

2018

Senolytics extend mouse healthspan

The dasatinib-plus-quercetin senolytic combination selectively cleared senescent cells, improved physical function, and extended lifespan in naturally aged mice (in mice).

Kirkland et al., Mayo Clinic

2019

First-in-human senolytic trialExperiment

A first-in-human open-label pilot gave dasatinib and quercetin to 14 patients with pulmonary fibrosis, showing feasibility and improved mobility (small early-stage human trial, no control group).

Mayo Clinic / UT Health

2022-203012 events3 shown

Human translation

Human translation moved the field from reprogramming companies launch on billionaire funding to er-100 phase 1 safety readout. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.

2022

Reprogramming companies launch on billionaire funding

Altos Labs debuted with roughly $3B, alongside Retro Biosciences and Life Biosciences, industrializing cellular reprogramming and senescence research toward human therapies.

Altos, Retro, Life Biosciences

2023

Calorie restriction slows a validated aging clock in humansExperiment

The randomized CALERIE trial found 2 years of 25% calorie restriction slowed DunedinPACE, a DNA-methylation pace-of-aging measure, by 2-3% in healthy adults - an early human signal.

Belsky et al., Columbia/Duke

2023

Taurine extends mouse lifespan

Daily taurine begun at 14 months increased median lifespan by 10-12% in C57BL/6J mice; the study did not demonstrate longer human life, and its monkey arm measured health markers only.

Singh, Yadav and an international consortium

2023

Two drugs pass the NIA mouse test in males

Astaxanthin and meclizine increased male UM-HET3 median lifespan by 12% and 8%, respectively, but not female lifespan or the 90th-percentile endpoint.

NIA Interventions Testing Program

2024

Randomized senolytic trial misses primary endpoint

In 60 postmenopausal women, intermittent dasatinib plus quercetin did not significantly reduce the bone-resorption marker CTx at 20 weeks; subgroup signals were exploratory.

Mayo Clinic investigators

2024

IL-11 blockade extends late-life mouse survival

Anti-IL-11 begun at 75 weeks increased median lifespan by 22.5% in male and 25% in female mice while improving frailty and metabolism; human ageing efficacy is untested.

Duke-NUS, MRC London and collaborators

2025

PEARL rapamycin trial misses primary endpoint

The 48-week, 114-participant placebo-controlled trial found similar serious-adverse-event rates but no effect on its primary visceral-fat endpoint; reported sex-specific findings were secondary.

PEARL investigators and AgelessRx collaborators

2025

Longitudinal data challenge taurine biomarker claim

Across humans, rhesus monkeys and mice, circulating taurine generally rose or stayed stable with age and related inconsistently to health, challenging the biomarker premise rather than the earlier mouse intervention.

US National Institutes of Health and National Institute on Aging

2025

Three more ITP drugs extend male mouse lifespan

Epicatechin increased male median lifespan by about 5%, while halofuginone and mitoglitazone each added about 9%; none extended female lifespan.

NIA Interventions Testing Program

2026

VITAL-H healthspan trial receives funding

ARPA-H awarded up to $38 million for a planned 726-person Phase 3 trial of rapamycin, an SGLT2 inhibitor and semaglutide versus placebo; enrollment is planned for 2027 and no efficacy data exist.

ARPA-H and UT Health San Antonio

2026

First partial reprogramming dosed in a human (ER-100)DeploymentWe are here

Life Biosciences dosed the first patient in a Phase 1 trial of ER-100, an OSK partial-reprogramming therapy injected into the eye - the first reprogramming therapy to reach humans.

Life Biosciences

TODAY · below this line: schedules, not results

2027

ER-100 Phase 1 safety readoutExperimentTarget

The first human safety and tolerability data for partial epigenetic reprogramming are expected - a pivotal test of whether the mouse rejuvenation results translate to people.

Life Biosciences

2030-20301 event0 shown

Events outside the declared eras

Events outside the declared eras begins with target: a phase 3 healthspan endpoint (tame). The result established the next question for the field.

2030

Target: a Phase 3 healthspan endpoint (TAME)ExperimentTarget

The proposed TAME trial would test whether metformin delays a composite of age-related diseases in 3,000 older adults, seeking the first regulatory proof that a drug can target aging.

Barzilai / AFAR

— end of record · 23 shown, 0 hidden —

23 events · below the TODAY rule = scheduled, not done

03 · The data behind the verdict

Why the meters read the way they do

The learning curves and comparisons that justify each threshold's percentage. Every series is measured, with the source event linked in the timeline above.

Drugs are climbing, but the anchor is higher.The best defined-drug result is +26%; the +50% anchor remains higher.One bar = one reproducible drug result in mice · median lifespan increase · 2009–2014 · dashed line = caloric-restriction anchorOne bar = one reproducible NIA drug result · percent increase in mouse median lifespan · 2009–2014 · solid bars are observed; the +50% anchor is a historical comparison, not human evidence

NIA ITP · NATURE · AS OF JUL 2026

01Anti-IL-11 remains a mouse result

Anti-IL-11 raised pooled median survival from 120.9 to 155.6 weeks; gross tumours were found in 3/19 treated versus 22/36 control mice. It remains one laboratory programme in mice, not an independently replicated ITP result or human treatment.

Source · Nature

02PEARL's primary endpoint was null

PEARL's primary visceral-adiposity result was unequivocally null (partial η² = 0.001, p = 0.942). The reported female lean-mass effect at 10 mg/week (partial η² = 0.202, p = 0.013) was a secondary, sex-stratified result and is not evidence of slower aging or longer life.

Source · Aging

03The senolytic subgroup was exploratory

In the senolytic randomized trial, overall CTx changes were −4.1% with dasatinib plus quercetin versus −7.7% in controls (p = 0.611). The high-p16 subgroup's bone findings were exploratory and should be treated as a hypothesis for stratified trials.

Source · Nature Medicine

04New mouse hits are male-specific

ITP's newer hits reinforce severe sex dependence: astaxanthin, meclizine, epicatechin, halofuginone and mitoglitazone benefited only males; astaxanthin and meclizine also failed the statistical test for 90th-percentile survival.

Source · 2024 GeroScience study Source · 2025 GeroScience study

05Aging clocks are not validated surrogates

Aging-clock responsiveness is not surrogate validation. A standardized evaluation of 39 biomarkers in more than 20,000 people found chronological-age accuracy poorly correlated with mortality prediction (R = 0.12, p = 0.67); no clock has thereby proved that an intervention-induced score change predicts clinical benefit.

Source · Nature Aging

06VITAL-H is an announced test

VITAL-H's intrinsic-capacity strategy targets multidomain physical and mental function rather than lifespan. The trial is funded and designed, but the institution says enrollment starts in 2027, so it is an announced test-not achieved evidence.

Source · UT Health San Antonio

04 · What it unlocks

If the remaining tests pass

Downstream capabilities, drawn dashed because they depend on results not yet in.

05 · The players & the money

Who is building it-and what the money saysCapital, institutions and the global race

The teams doing the work, where they are based, and whether the money points to real delivery or only a plan.Company finance, public programmes, institutional leadership and market evidence-kept separate from valuations, forecasts and announced capacity.

The short versionCapital and institutional readout

The field is funded by a mix of large private reprogramming bets, nonprofit institutes and broad public aging research. The money is real; a large, durable extension of healthy human life is not. Company financing, animal results and biomarker movement therefore sit here as inputs to the work, not evidence that a human healthspan treatment works.

Players

Who is building itCompanies, laboratories and programmes

Altos Labs

USA / UK

Cellular rejuvenation programming across Bay Area, San Diego and Cambridge research institutes

NewLimit

USA

Epigenetic-reprogramming medicines aimed at restoring youthful cell function

Retro Biosciences

USA

Cellular reprogramming, autophagy and plasma-inspired programs

Companies, laboratories and programmes working on this problem
Player	Country	What they are doing	Funding	Named investors	Source
Altos Labscompany	USA / UK	Cellular rejuvenation programming across Bay Area, San Diego and Cambridge research institutes The launch release did not name the backers.	$3B cumulative$3B fully committed at launch · Jan 2022	Not disclosed	Source · prnewswire.com
NewLimitcompany	USA	Epigenetic-reprogramming medicines aimed at restoring youthful cell function	Series B · $130M · May 2025	Kleiner Perkins · NFDG · Khosla Ventures · Human Capital · Valor Equity Partners	Source · blog.newlimit.com
Retro Biosciencescompany	USA	Cellular reprogramming, autophagy and plasma-inspired programs $1.8B was the disclosed pre-money valuation, not capital raised.	Initial close; amount undisclosed · Jun 2026	4P Capital	Source · retro.bio
Calicocompany	USA	Basic aging biology plus drug discovery and development for age-related disease	Not disclosed	Not disclosed	Source · calicolabs.com
Buck Institute for Research on Agingnonprofit	USA	Independent institute spanning cellular aging, metabolism, immune aging and disease	Not disclosed	Not disclosed	Source · buckinstitute.org
Hevolution Foundationnonprofit	Saudi Arabia	Grants and early-stage investment in healthspan science	Not disclosed	Not disclosed	Source · hevolution.com
National Institute on Aginggovernment	USA	US federal funder of aging and older-adult health research FY2026 enacted budget: $4.528939B; it covers aging research broadly.	Not disclosed	Not disclosed	Source · nia.nih.gov

06 · Sources

Where every number comes from

5 sources — every figure on this page traces to one.