Updated · July 2026
How close are we to fusion power?Can we bottle a star?
Can we bottle a star?How close are we to fusion power?
Fusion has crossed scientific breakeven, but an economical power plant still requires a much harder engineering breakeven.We have made a tiny star flash in a laboratory; now we have to turn that flash into a dependable power station.
Recorded milestones
First tokamak
NIF ignition
Open tests · conceptual branches
- OPEN TEST02 ↗Make the whole power station pay back its energyEngineering breakevenThe reactor, magnets, cooling and turbines all have to produce more power than they use.Q_eng > 1 · more electricity out than the full plant consumes
- OPEN TEST03 ↗Make fusion cheap enough for the gridGrid economicsA working reactor only matters at scale if its electricity can compete with other clean power.LCOE < $60/MWh · competitive delivered electricity
The path shows NIF ignition. Open thresholds are separate tests in a conceptual map, not a forecast. No single percentage represents progress.
Where we standWhere we stand
The current stage, the evidence recorded, and the single threshold that gates the next stage.The stage reached, the evidence recorded, and the one test still blocking the next step.
What the evidence has shownWhat the evidence has shown
We have made a tiny star flash in a laboratory; now we have to turn that flash into a dependable power station.Fusion has crossed scientific breakeven, but an economical power plant still requires a much harder engineering breakeven.
The next testBlocking threshold
Make the whole power station pay back its energyEngineering breakevenSPARC's Q>10 plasma-gain target is an intermediate test; a plant-breakeven demonstration must also account for recirculating power, conversion losses and balance-of-plant loads.SPARC's Q>10 plasma-gain target is an intermediate test; a plant-breakeven demonstration must also account for recirculating power, conversion losses and balance-of-plant loads.
What would count as proof?What would count as proof?
A clear test, the evidence behind it, and the limits of the claim.A clear test, the evidence behind it, and what it still leaves open.
Get more energy out of the fuel than we shine inScientific ignition
The fuel capsule finally gave back more energy than the laser delivered to it.Q_sci > 1 · more fusion energy out than laser energy on target
Each square = 0.1 MJ
Recorded result NIF, 3.1 / 2.05 MJ (paper-rounded result; PRL 132, 2024)
SOURCE RECORD
Abu-Shawareb et al., PRL 132 (2024) ↗Still to demonstrateWhat this does not establishA separate system can still have different conditions and results.The named measurement has no wider implication until the supporting system test is also shown.
View every evidence record
Achieved
Get more energy out of the fuel than we shine inScientific ignition
The fuel capsule finally gave back more energy than the laser delivered to it.Q_sci > 1 · more fusion energy out than laser energy on target
Recorded result: Dec 2022 · NIF, 3.1 / 2.05 MJ (paper-rounded result; PRL 132, 2024)
Open test
Make the whole power station pay back its energyEngineering breakeven
The reactor, magnets, cooling and turbines all have to produce more power than they use.Q_eng > 1 · more electricity out than the full plant consumes
Next test: SPARC's Q>10 plasma-gain target is an intermediate test; a plant-breakeven demonstration must also account for recirculating power, conversion losses and balance-of-plant loads.
Open test
Make fusion cheap enough for the gridGrid economics
A working reactor only matters at scale if its electricity can compete with other clean power.LCOE < $60/MWh · competitive delivered electricity
Next test: ARC pilot plant, early 2030s
The record behind the verdictThe record behind the verdict
Major milestones and smaller context events share one source-linked record. Scheduled targets are marked separately from recorded events.Milestones, smaller events and setbacks share one sourced record. Scheduled targets are marked separately from recorded events.
Event key
The theory takes shape
Fusion moved from a stellar explanation to a laboratory proposition. The basic reaction was understood before anyone had a machine capable of holding it.
The machines are built
The first generation of confinement machines turned equations into experiments. Tokamaks, large facilities, and sustained plasma became the field’s shared engineering language.
Chasing breakeven
Decades of larger machines narrowed the gap to useful gain, but each record exposed another layer between hot plasma and a power station.
From physics to power
NIF crossed scientific breakeven, while high-field magnets opened a smaller reactor path. The frontier is now engineering gain, maintainability, and affordable electricity.
Additional records
Scheduled target: “ARC - first electricity”.
The data behind the verdictThe data behind the verdict
Read each measure with its units, conditions, uncertainty and source; targets remain distinct from observations.Read each chart with its conditions, limits and source. Future targets remain distinct from recorded results.
- 1JET · plasma gain · 0.67 Q · 1997
- 2NIF · target gain · 1.54 Q · 2022 · Precise LLNL accounting: 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ on target (Q ≈ 1.54); PRL reports the yield rounded to 3.1 MJ.
- AScientific breakeven (Q = 1) · 1 QScientific breakeven (Q = 1) · 1 Q
- BSPARC target · 10 Q · 2027 · projected · not a record
- CCommercial power plant (~Q 30) · 30 QCommercial power plant (~Q 30) · 30 Q
Records are separate measurements; no line joins them. Q records here come from different systems and accounting boundaries (JET plasma gain, NIF target gain and a SPARC target); compare them as separate records, not one progress line. Commercial Q~30 is a plant design reference.
View every data figure
- 1JET · plasma gain · 0.67 Q · 1997
- 2NIF · target gain · 1.54 Q · 2022 · Precise LLNL accounting: 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ on target (Q ≈ 1.54); PRL reports the yield rounded to 3.1 MJ.
- AScientific breakeven (Q = 1) · 1 QScientific breakeven (Q = 1) · 1 Q
- BSPARC target · 10 Q · 2027 · projected · not a record
- CCommercial power plant (~Q 30) · 30 QCommercial power plant (~Q 30) · 30 Q
Records are separate measurements; no line joins them. Q records here come from different systems and accounting boundaries (JET plasma gain, NIF target gain and a SPARC target); compare them as separate records, not one progress line. Commercial Q~30 is a plant design reference.
linear scale · $B by year
Private fusion funding, cumulative · 0.3 $B · Jan 2015 · verification unspecified
First record
Jan 20150.3 $B · Jan 2015
observed · Verification unspecified
Latest record
Jan 20247.1 $B · Jan 2024
observed · Verification unspecified
Each square = 1 $B
Each square = 0.1 MJ
If the remaining tests pass.If the remaining tests pass.
Downstream capabilities remain conditional on results that are not yet in.These are possible next capabilities, conditional on results that are not yet in.
- PASSED · Dec 202201 ↗Get more energy out of the fuel than we shine inScientific ignitionThe fuel capsule finally gave back more energy than the laser delivered to it.Q_sci > 1 · more fusion energy out than laser energy on target
- OPEN TEST02 ↗Make the whole power station pay back its energyEngineering breakevenThe reactor, magnets, cooling and turbines all have to produce more power than they use.Q_eng > 1 · more electricity out than the full plant consumes
- OPEN TEST03 ↗Make fusion cheap enough for the gridGrid economicsA working reactor only matters at scale if its electricity can compete with other clean power.LCOE < $60/MWh · competitive delivered electricity
Possible, if the open tests pass.
Low-carbon electricity at scale
It only helps if a whole plant can make power reliably, safely and cheaply.Requires a plant that demonstrates full-plant net electricity, a qualified fuel cycle, maintainable materials and competitive delivered cost.
More flexible clean power
Desalination could benefit only where a reliable, affordable plant and the needed infrastructure exist.Depends on reliable, affordable fusion electricity plus suitable local water, grid and construction infrastructure.
Potential climate tools
Cheap clean power alone does not remove carbon; capture and storage would still have to work.Requires separate carbon-capture, transport and permanent-storage systems in addition to low-carbon energy.
Meet the builders.Meet the builders.
The organisations, their approaches, and the evidence behind them.The teams doing the work, the money around them, and what the record can support.
USA · company
Commonwealth Fusion Systems
Building the high-field SPARC tokamak and developing the proposed ARC power plant.
Capital is context, not a demonstration.
Company source ↗View every builder record
Commonwealth Fusion Systems
USA · company · Building the high-field SPARC tokamak and developing the proposed ARC power plant.
Funding: Series B2 · $863M · Aug 2025
Named investors: Breakthrough Energy Ventures · Google · NVentures · Eni · Temasek · Khosla Ventures
CFS described cumulative funding as nearly $3B; SPARC and ARC had not delivered electricity by the cutoff.
Company source ↗Helion Energy
USA · company · Developing pulsed field-reversed-configuration machines with direct electrical energy recovery.
Funding: Series F · $425M · Jan 2025
Named investors: Lightspeed Venture Partners · SoftBank Vision Fund 2 · Sam Altman · Nucor
Helion says total invested exceeds $1B; its power-delivery schedule remains a company target.
Company source ↗TAE Technologies
USA · company · Developing a beam-driven field-reversed configuration, ultimately targeting hydrogen-boron fuel.
Funding: Funding not recorded in this record.
Named investors: Google · Chevron Technology Ventures · Goldman Sachs · Sumitomo Corporation of Americas · NEA
TAE reported more than $1.3B private capital; its announced merger value is not funding raised.
Company source ↗ITER Organization
International · government · Building a seven-member experimental tokamak to demonstrate burning-plasma feasibility, not commercial electricity.
Funding: Funding not recorded in this record.
Company source ↗National Ignition Facility
USA · lab · Runs laser-driven inertial-confinement experiments and has repeatedly achieved target-level ignition.
Funding: Funding not recorded in this record.
Target gain excludes the much larger wall-plug energy used by the facility.
Company source ↗Follow the evidence.Follow the evidence.
35 sources — every figure on this page traces to one.35 sources — every figure on this page traces to one.
- 01
Abu-Shawareb et al., PRL 132 (2024)
Read source ↗journals.aps.orgUsed on this pageScope: Primary publication named by Abu-Shawareb et al., PRL 132 (2024). Limit: The publication's measured scope does not establish downstream engineering or deployment claims.
- 02
CFS SPARC papers
Read source ↗cfs.energyUsed on this pageAll 7 uses across 6 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 03
FIA 2025 Global Fusion Industry Report
Read source ↗fusionindustryassociation.orgUsed on this pageAll 8 uses across 6 destinations
Scope: The association's 2025 industry survey and reported investment totals. Limit: Industry-reported investment is not a measure of technical performance or delivered electricity.
- 04
LLNL NIF Dec 2022 announcement · 3.15 MJ yield
Read source ↗lasers.llnl.govUsed on this pageAll 1 use across 1 destination
Scope: Primary LLNL announcement for the precise December 2022 NIF target yield and laser-on-target accounting. Limit: Reports target-level fusion gain; it does not establish whole-plant electricity or commercial operation.
- 05
Timeline · Eddington proposes stellar fusion
Read source ↗en.wikipedia.orgUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 1 destination
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 06
Timeline · Fusion achieved in a lab
Read source ↗en.wikipedia.orgUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 07
Timeline · The tokamak is born
Read source ↗en.wikipedia.orgScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 08
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 09
Timeline · JET record: Q = 0.67
Read source ↗en.wikipedia.orgScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 10
Timeline · ITER agreement signed
Read source ↗en.wikipedia.orgUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 11
Timeline · JET sets 69 MJ world record
Read source ↗euro-fusion.orgUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 12
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 13
Timeline · EAST sustains plasma 1,066 seconds
Read source ↗english.cas.cnUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 14
Timeline · CFS raises $863M to build SPARC and ARC
Read source ↗cfs.energyScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 15
Timeline · SPARC tokamak assembly underway
Read source ↗world-nuclear-news.orgUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 16
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 17
companies · Helion Energy
Read source ↗helionenergy.comUsed on this pageAll 3 uses across 1 destination
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 18
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 19
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 20
companies · National Ignition Facility
Read source ↗lasers.llnl.govUsed on this pageAll 1 use across 1 destination
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 21
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 22
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 23
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 24
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 25
market · ~$9.7B cumulative private fusion investment
Read source ↗fusionindustryassociation.orgUsed on this pageScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 26
market · $135M ARPA-E fusion commitment
Read source ↗arpa-e.energy.govUsed on this pageAll 1 use across 1 destination
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 27
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 28
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 29
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 30
Commonwealth Fusion Systems official site
Read source ↗cfs.energyScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 31
Helion official site
Read source ↗helionenergy.comScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 32
TAE Technologies official site
Read source ↗tae.comScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 33
TAE Technologies logo review
Read source ↗tae.comScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 34
ITER Organization official site
Read source ↗iter.orgScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 35
National Ignition Facility official site
Read source ↗lasers.llnl.govScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
Sources describe evidence. Inclusion is not endorsement.