Updated · July 2026
How close are we to hydrogen that's cheap and clean?Can clean hydrogen get cheap enough to matter?
Can clean hydrogen get cheap enough to matter?How close are we to hydrogen that's cheap and clean?
Electrolysis works; the open question is whether clean hydrogen can reach a few dollars a kilogram and scale to industrial volumes.Clean hydrogen could fuel steel, ships, and fertilizer. First it has to get cheap - and get built at scale.
Recorded milestones
Water electrolysis demonstrated
Four gigawatts, one percent
Open tests · conceptual branches
- OPEN TEST01 ↗Build the first 10 GWTen-gigawatt installed baseMore than 4 GW operated in 2025; construction is fast, but this remains tiny beside fossil hydrogen.Reach 10 GW of operating dedicated water-electrolysis capacity worldwide.
- OPEN TEST02 ↗Break through one percentOne-percent low-emissions shareAlmost 1 Mt served a market above 100 Mt in 2025, leaving the share just under 1%.Low-emissions hydrogen exceeds 1% of global annual hydrogen demand.
- OPEN TEST03 ↗Halve today's costTwo-dollar clean hydrogenDOE's modeled renewable PEM range remains $5-7/kg; gas-plus-CCS can be cheaper but often misses the clean-intensity condition.Demonstrate repeatable unsubsidized production at $2/kg or less with auditable lifecycle carbon intensity.
- OPEN TEST04 ↗Find real buyersBankable offtakeOnly 20% of 1.7 Mt of new offtake agreements in 2025 were firm contracts.Convert a majority of newly announced low-emissions hydrogen offtake into firm contracts that support final investment decisions.
The path shows Four gigawatts, one percent. Open thresholds are separate tests in a conceptual map, not a forecast. No single percentage represents progress.
Where we standWhere we stand
The current stage, the evidence recorded, and the single threshold that gates the next stage.The stage reached, the evidence recorded, and the one test still blocking the next step.
What the evidence has shownWhat the evidence has shown
Clean hydrogen could fuel steel, ships, and fertilizer. First it has to get cheap - and get built at scale.Electrolysis works; the open question is whether clean hydrogen can reach a few dollars a kilogram and scale to industrial volumes.
The next testBlocking threshold
Build the first 10 GWTen-gigawatt installed baseIEA's next annual inventory can test whether the more than 2.5 GW under construction for 2026 actually enters service.IEA's next annual inventory can test whether the more than 2.5 GW under construction for 2026 actually enters service.
What would count as proof?What would count as proof?
A clear test, the evidence behind it, and the limits of the claim.A clear test, the evidence behind it, and what it still leaves open.
Build the first 10 GWTen-gigawatt installed base
More than 4 GW operated in 2025; construction is fast, but this remains tiny beside fossil hydrogen.Reach 10 GW of operating dedicated water-electrolysis capacity worldwide.
Next test IEA's next annual inventory can test whether the more than 2.5 GW under construction for 2026 actually enters service.
Still to demonstrateWhat this does not establishA separate system can still have different conditions and results.The named measurement has no wider implication until the supporting system test is also shown.
View every evidence record
Open test
Build the first 10 GWTen-gigawatt installed base
More than 4 GW operated in 2025; construction is fast, but this remains tiny beside fossil hydrogen.Reach 10 GW of operating dedicated water-electrolysis capacity worldwide.
Next test: IEA's next annual inventory can test whether the more than 2.5 GW under construction for 2026 actually enters service.
Open test
Break through one percentOne-percent low-emissions share
Almost 1 Mt served a market above 100 Mt in 2025, leaving the share just under 1%.Low-emissions hydrogen exceeds 1% of global annual hydrogen demand.
Next test: IEA expects low-emissions supply to exceed 1% in 2026; the next measured production estimate can confirm or falsify that forecast.
Open test
Halve today's costTwo-dollar clean hydrogen
DOE's modeled renewable PEM range remains $5-7/kg; gas-plus-CCS can be cheaper but often misses the clean-intensity condition.Demonstrate repeatable unsubsidized production at $2/kg or less with auditable lifecycle carbon intensity.
Next test: Require a commercial project's audited electricity cost, utilization, financing, subsidy-free cost and kgCO2e/kg H2 before crediting the threshold.
Open test
Find real buyersBankable offtake
Only 20% of 1.7 Mt of new offtake agreements in 2025 were firm contracts.Convert a majority of newly announced low-emissions hydrogen offtake into firm contracts that support final investment decisions.
Next test: By early 2027, test whether projects behind the 22 Mt at-risk 2030 pipeline reach final investment decision.
The record behind the verdictThe record behind the verdict
Major milestones and smaller context events share one source-linked record. Scheduled targets are marked separately from recorded events.Milestones, smaller events and setbacks share one sourced record. Scheduled targets are marked separately from recorded events.
Event key
Finding and Splitting Hydrogen
Recorded event: “Water split electrically”.
Fertilizer Makes Hydrogen Industrial
This record spans “Synthetic ammonia industrialized” to “Vemork electrolysis opens”.
Fuel-Cell Promises Meet Reality
Recorded event: “Hydrogen initiative launched”.
Scaling Under Carbon Rules
This record spans “Europe sets electrolyzer targets” to “EU targets ten million tonnes” and includes scheduled targets.
Additional records
Scheduled target: “Hydrogen Shot dollar goal”.
The data behind the verdictThe data behind the verdict
Read each measure with its units, conditions, uncertainty and source; targets remain distinct from observations.Read each chart with its conditions, limits and source. Future targets remain distinct from recorded results.
DOE launch baseline, approximately · 5 2022 USD/kg H2 · 2021 · verification unspecified
View every data figure
DOE launch baseline, approximately · 5 2022 USD/kg H2 · 2021 · verification unspecified
linear scale · GW by year
Installed water-electrolysis capacity · 0.33 GW · Jan 2020 · verification unspecified
First record
Jan 20200.33 GW · Jan 2020
observed · Verification unspecified
Latest record
Jan 2025≥4 GW · Jan 2025
observed · Verification unspecified · right-censored lower bound
ConditionIEA reports more than 4 GW of installed water-electrolysis capacity.
linear scale · Mt H2/year by year
Total global hydrogen demand · 95 Mt H2/year · Jan 2022 · verification unspecified
First record
Jan 202295 Mt H2/year · Jan 2022
observed · Verification unspecified
Latest record
Jan 2025≥100 Mt H2/year · Jan 2025
observed · Verification unspecified · right-censored lower bound
ConditionIEA reports more than 100 Mt.
linear scale · Mt H2/year by year
Low-emissions hydrogen production · 0.8 Mt H2/year · Jan 2024 · verification unspecified
First record
Jan 20240.8 Mt H2/year · Jan 2024
observed · Verification unspecified
Latest record
Jan 20251 Mt H2/year · Jan 2025
observed · Verification unspecified
linear scale · Mt H2/year by year
Announced low-emissions production for 2030 · 38 Mt H2/year · Jan 2023 · verification unspecified
First record
Jan 202338 Mt H2/year · Jan 2023
target · Verification unspecified
Latest record
Jan 202627 Mt H2/year · Jan 2026
target · Verification unspecified
linear scale · Mt H2/year by year
Committed 2030 low-emissions production · 3.4 Mt H2/year · Jan 2024 · verification unspecified
First record
Jan 20243.4 Mt H2/year · Jan 2024
target · Verification unspecified
Latest record
Jan 20264.3 Mt H2/year · Jan 2026
target · Verification unspecified
Each square = 1 Mt H2/year
Each square = 100 USD/kW
DOE's modeled current PEM cost midpoint is six times the Hydrogen Shot goal.
ConditionThis is a modeled cost, not a measured delivered price.Modeled PEM midpoint under the DOE cost assumptions; it is not an observed delivered price.
ConditionThis is a policy goal, not a price already reached.Hydrogen Shot goal used as a policy target, not an achieved market price.
Methods & conditions
Under the measurement.
The boundary of a measurement changes what it means.
Electricity sets a hard cost floor
Method and conditions
DOE's representative PEM model starts at 55.2 kWh/kg H₂ and averages 57.5 kWh/kg over a 40,000-hour stack life as voltage degrades. Even electricity at $0.03/kWh therefore contributes roughly $1.66-1.73/kg before electrolyser capital cost, financing, water, compression or storage.
Source notes
Technical notes and sources
Each note keeps its authored method, conditions and citations available for review.
Electricity sets a hard cost floor
DOE's representative PEM model starts at 55.2 kWh/kg H₂ and averages 57.5 kWh/kg over a 40,000-hour stack life as voltage degrades. Even electricity at $0.03/kWh therefore contributes roughly $1.66-1.73/kg before electrolyser capital cost, financing, water, compression or storage.
PEM targets must be met together
DOE's 2026 PEM targets-51 kWh/kg system consumption, 80,000-hour life and $250/kW uninstalled system cost-must be achieved together at relevant scale; meeting one laboratory target does not demonstrate $2/kg hydrogen.
Electricity provenance determines emissions
Electricity provenance dominates electrolytic hydrogen's carbon intensity. US 45V accounting therefore requires incrementality, regional deliverability and, from 2030, hourly matching; the statutory eligibility ceiling is 4 kgCO₂e/kg H₂.
Green hydrogen still has lifecycle emissions
Green hydrogen is not literally zero-emission on a full lifecycle basis. A 2024 Nature Energy assessment of 1,025 planned facilities found 2.9 kgCO₂e/kg H₂ median emissions even in its most optimistic configuration; 1,000 km transport added approximately 1.5 kg by pipeline or 1.8 kg by liquid-hydrogen shipping.
Water matters locally more than it costs
DOE estimates electrolysis can consume about 3.8 US gallons, or 14.4 litres, of water per kilogram of hydrogen including treatment assumptions. Desalination adds only an estimated $0.01-0.04/kg, so local water availability and discharge management matter more than desalination's direct cost.
Factory capacity overstates actual output
Global electrolyser manufacturing capacity reached 25 GW/year in 2023, but actual output was only 2.5 GW. Manufacturing announcements therefore overstate near-term equipment supply.
Installed systems cost more than stacks
Installed cost, not stack price, is the meaningful comparison. In 2024 the IEA estimated $600-1,200/kW for Chinese-made-and-installed systems versus $2,000-2,600/kW outside China; shipping, tariffs and adaptation raised Chinese equipment installed abroad to $1,500-2,400/kW, while engineering, procurement and construction plus contingency represented more than half of total investment.
Demand is tighter than equipment supply
New offtake agreements fell from 2.4 Mt/year in 2023 to 1.7 Mt/year in 2024, and firm contracts remain concentrated in existing refinery, chemical and shipping uses. Demand is therefore more binding than equipment supply.
If the remaining tests pass.If the remaining tests pass.
Downstream capabilities remain conditional on results that are not yet in.These are possible next capabilities, conditional on results that are not yet in.
- OPEN TEST01 ↗Build the first 10 GWTen-gigawatt installed baseMore than 4 GW operated in 2025; construction is fast, but this remains tiny beside fossil hydrogen.Reach 10 GW of operating dedicated water-electrolysis capacity worldwide.
- OPEN TEST02 ↗Break through one percentOne-percent low-emissions shareAlmost 1 Mt served a market above 100 Mt in 2025, leaving the share just under 1%.Low-emissions hydrogen exceeds 1% of global annual hydrogen demand.
- OPEN TEST03 ↗Halve today's costTwo-dollar clean hydrogenDOE's modeled renewable PEM range remains $5-7/kg; gas-plus-CCS can be cheaper but often misses the clean-intensity condition.Demonstrate repeatable unsubsidized production at $2/kg or less with auditable lifecycle carbon intensity.
- OPEN TEST04 ↗Find real buyersBankable offtakeOnly 20% of 1.7 Mt of new offtake agreements in 2025 were firm contracts.Convert a majority of newly announced low-emissions hydrogen offtake into firm contracts that support final investment decisions.
Possible, if the open tests pass.
Low-emissions fertilizer
This is a possible benefit only if low-emissions fertilizer works safely, reliably and at useful scale.Potential benefit only if the stated use (Low-emissions fertilizer) is demonstrated with evidence for safety, reliability, affordability and scale.
Cleaner primary steel
This is a possible benefit only if cleaner primary steel works safely, reliably and at useful scale.Potential benefit only if the stated use (Cleaner primary steel) is demonstrated with evidence for safety, reliability, affordability and scale.
Synthetic shipping fuels
This is a possible benefit only if synthetic shipping fuels works safely, reliably and at useful scale.Potential benefit only if the stated use (Synthetic shipping fuels) is demonstrated with evidence for safety, reliability, affordability and scale.
Clean high-temperature industrial heat
This is a possible benefit only if clean high-temperature industrial heat works safely, reliably and at useful scale.Potential benefit only if the stated use (Clean high-temperature industrial heat) is demonstrated with evidence for safety, reliability, affordability and scale.
Related problem ↗
Meet the builders.Meet the builders.
The organisations, their approaches, and the evidence behind them.The teams doing the work, the money around them, and what the record can support.
United States · company
Electric Hydrogen
Manufactures large alkaline electrolyser systems for industrial hydrogen projects.
Capital is context, not a demonstration.
Company source ↗View every builder record
Electric Hydrogen
United States · company · Manufactures large alkaline electrolyser systems for industrial hydrogen projects.
Funding: October 2023 Series C: $380 million
Named investors: Fortescue · Fifth Wall · Energy Impact Partners · bp Ventures · Oman Investment Authority · Temasek · Microsoft Climate Innovation Fund
Later credit, equipment-finance, grant and tax-credit support is separate from this equity round.
Company source ↗Sunfire
Germany · company · Manufactures pressurised alkaline and solid-oxide electrolysers for industrial customers.
Funding: March 2024 Series E equity: €215 million
Named investors: LGT · GIC · Ahren Innovation Capital · Carbon Equity · Lightrock · Carbon Direct
Sunfire separately announced up to €100 million of EIB debt and access to about €200 million of approved grants.
Company source ↗Stegra
Sweden · company · Builds an integrated renewable-hydrogen, direct-reduced-iron and steel project in Boden.
Funding: January 2024 project financing: €4.2 billion debt; equity raised reached €2.1 billion
Named investors: Microsoft Climate Innovation Fund · Mubea · Siemens Financial Services · IMAS Foundation · Just Climate
The debt is project finance; a separate €250 million EU Innovation Fund grant is not equity.
Company source ↗NEOM Green Hydrogen Company
Saudi Arabia · company · Builds an integrated renewable hydrogen and ammonia export project.
Funding: May 2023 financial close: $8.4 billion total investment, including $6.1 billion non-recourse project finance
Named investors: ACWA Power · Air Products · NEOM · 23 lending institutions
The plant's 600 tonnes/day hydrogen figure is design capacity, not achieved production.
Company source ↗Follow the evidence.Follow the evidence.
43 sources — every figure on this page traces to one.43 sources — every figure on this page traces to one.
- 01
IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2026 - Executive summary
Read source ↗iea.orgUsed on this pageAll 22 uses across 14 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 02
IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2026 - Production
Read source ↗iea.orgUsed on this pageAll 4 uses across 3 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 03
IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2025 - Executive summary
Read source ↗iea.orgUsed on this pageAll 9 uses across 6 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 04
IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2024 - Hydrogen production
Read source ↗iea.orgUsed on this pageAll 6 uses across 4 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 05
DOE Energy Earthshots Initiative Report
Read source ↗energy.govUsed on this pageAll 7 uses across 6 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 06
DOE PEM Electrolysis Production Cost Assessment
Read source ↗hydrogen.energy.govUsed on this pageAll 4 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 07
US National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap
Read source ↗hydrogen.energy.govUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 1 destination
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 08
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 09
European Commission 2020 hydrogen strategy
Read source ↗knowledge4policy.ec.europa.euUsed on this pageScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 10
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 11
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 12
Timeline · Synthetic ammonia industrialized
Read source ↗basf.comUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 13
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 14
Timeline · Hydrogen initiative launched
Read source ↗hydrogen.energy.govUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 15
Timeline · NEOM reaches financial close
Read source ↗neom.comScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 16
Timeline · Kuqa solar-hydrogen plant starts operation
Read source ↗sinopecgroup.comUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 17
Timeline · Heroya electrolyzer feeds commercial fertilizer
Read source ↗linde-engineering.comUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 18
Timeline · FlagshipONE cancelled
Read source ↗cdn.orsted.dkUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 19
Timeline · First European Hydrogen Bank grants are signed
Read source ↗climate.ec.europa.euUsed on this pageScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 20
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 21
Timeline · Daan wind-and-solar ammonia project starts production
Read source ↗miit.gov.cnUsed on this pageScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 22
Timeline · Project pipeline contracts
Read source ↗iea.orgUsed on this pageAll 4 uses across 3 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 23
Timeline · Second EU hydrogen auction loses most initial projects
Read source ↗climate.ec.europa.euUsed on this pageScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 24
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 25
Series · Installed water-electrolysis capacity
Read source ↗iea.orgScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 26
Series · Total global hydrogen demand
Read source ↗iea.orgScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 27
Series · Low-emissions hydrogen production
Read source ↗iea.orgScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 28
Series · Committed 2030 low-emissions production
Read source ↗iea.orgScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 29
Series · Committed 2030 low-emissions production
Read source ↗iea.orgScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 30
Engineer note · PEM targets must be met together
Read source ↗energy.govScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 31
Engineer note · Electricity provenance determines emissions
Read source ↗home.treasury.govScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 32
Engineer note · Green hydrogen still has lifecycle emissions
Read source ↗nature.comScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 33
Engineer note · Water matters locally more than it costs
Read source ↗energy.govScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 34
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 35
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 36
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 37
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 38
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 39
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 40
Electric Hydrogen official site
Read source ↗eh2.comScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 41
Sunfire official site
Read source ↗sunfire.deScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 42
Stegra official site
Read source ↗stegra.comScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 43
NEOM Green Hydrogen Company official site
Read source ↗neom.comScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
Sources describe evidence. Inclusion is not endorsement.