howclose.to
Materials · Updated July 2026Momentum · steady

How close are we to cement without the carbon?Can we make concrete without wrecking the climate?

or, simply: Can we make concrete without wrecking the climate?or, precisely: How close are we to cement without the carbon?

Cement is about 8% of global CO2; low-clinker chemistries and carbon capture can cut it deeply, but not yet at commodity cost and scale.Making cement pumps out huge amounts of CO2. New recipes and capture can slash it - if they stay cheap enough to use everywhere.

We are here

Pure Oxyfuel research kiln starts - The 450-tonne-clinker-per-day catch4climate research kiln entered operation after first producing clinker in May; capture and storage at that rate remain unproved. Next up - GeZero targets full capture (expected 2029).

01 · Where we stand

State of playWhere near-zero cement stands right now

The current stage, the honest metric, and the single threshold that gates the next stage. Each threshold is a falsifiable claim with a named next test.How far up the ladder we've climbed, the honest verdict, and the one thing blocking the next step.

The five stagesMaturity ladder
Deployed
Out in the real worldDeployed at scale
Scaling← HERE
Making it cheap enough at scaleScaling toward competitive cost
Engineering
Building one that pays for itselfEngineering a system that pays back
Lab demo
Shown to work in a labDemonstrated in the laboratory
Theoretical
The idea is worked out on paperTheoretical basis established
The honest verdictVerified state

Making cement pumps out huge amounts of CO2. New recipes and capture can slash it - if they stay cheap enough to use everywhere.Cement is about 8% of global CO2; low-clinker chemistries and carbon capture can cut it deeply, but not yet at commodity cost and scale.

610Best result so farGNR-based global average estimate
125IEA near-zero ceiling for 100% clinker cement
Blocking the next stepBlocking threshold

Replace the kiln chemistryDrop-In Alternative Binder Next test: A novel-route producer must run a kilotonne-scale plant and publish strength, durability, EPD and cost data.

The verdict, in five rungsHow far up the ladder↓ next — the thresholds & the gap
01 · The evidence

The thresholds that gate the next stageWhat has to happen next

Each threshold is a falsifiable claim with a named next test; the gap chart shows how far today's metric sits from the goal.Each row is one thing that has to be proven — and how far today's number is from the target.

Industrial Low-Clinker CementUse much less clinker✓ Achieved · February 2023
100%
Proven byThe Saint-Pierre-la-Cour calcined-clay line reached industrial nameplate, though delivered tonnes were not disclosed.
Drop-In Alternative BinderReplace the kiln chemistryEarly
35%
Next testA novel-route producer must run a kilotonne-scale plant and publish strength, durability, EPD and cost data.
Full-Chain Cement CCSStore kiln carbon permanently✓ Achieved · August 2025
100%
Proven byThe first Brevik cargo was injected 2,600 metres beneath the North Sea.
Near-Zero Commercial FleetScale beyond one plantEarly
10%
Next testTrack final investment decisions, commissioning and certified output for the 35 Mt project pipeline.
THRESHOLDS - Thresholds for Near-Zero Cement.
Scale
Cradle-to-gate cement emissions intensity over time, with measured values, projected values, and a goal at 125 kgCO2e/t cement.0100200300400500600700Cradle-to-gate cement emissions intensity · kgCO2e/t cementYear1990201120222030GOAL 125 · IEA near-zero ceiling for 100% cl…GNR-based global average es…GNR participating-producer…GNR-based global average es…Approximate GCCA target imp…~485 kgCO2e/t cement to goal
NOTE - The existing candidate metric is retained, but cement boundaries and product mixes vary. Historical values are industry GNR estimates, not a census. The IEA near-zero threshold slides from 125 kgCO2e/t at 100% clinker to 40 kgCO2e/t at lower clinker ratios, so 125 is an upper ceiling rather than one universal goal. The 2030 point is derived from GCCA's stated percentage target and is not achieved performance.
02 · How we got here

The record behind the verdict

Major events set large; context events set small but never hidden. Everything below the TODAY rule is a schedule, not a result.

1824-19892 events1 shown

The Clinker Age

The Clinker Age moved the field from portland cement is patented to ransome patents rotary kiln. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.

1824
Portland cement is patentedTheory
Joseph Aspdin patented artificial stone made by calcining limestone and clay, naming it Portland cement.
1885
Ransome patents rotary kiln
Frederick Ransome patented a rotating cement kiln, the ancestor of the continuous high-temperature process used today.
1990-20031 event0 shown

Measuring Industrial Carbon

Measuring Industrial Carbon begins with modern emissions baseline begins. The result established the next question for the field.

2004-20131 event1 shown

New Binders Emerge

New Binders Emerge begins with calcined-clay concept takes shape. The result established the next question for the field.

2014-20233 events1 shown

Pilots, Standards and Pledges

Pilots, Standards and Pledges moved the field from calera shuts after demonstration to lc3 reaches permanent production. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.

2014
Calera shuts after demonstrationSetback
Calera closed after placing roughly 100 tonnes of low-carbon material, showing chemistry did not guarantee a business.
2014
Brevik tests amine capture
A six-month mobile unit campaign began on real cement-kiln flue gas to test post-combustion CO2 capture.
2020
LC3 reaches permanent production
The LC3 project reported its first permanent large-scale production in Colombia after multi-country durability trials.
2024-205013 events4 shown

Full-Chain Scale Test

Full-Chain Scale Test moved the field from fortera opens redding plant to announced capacity reaches 35 mt. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.

2024
Fortera opens Redding plant
A 15,000 t/year mineralized-cement plant opened; initial 15% blends cut concrete emissions about 10%, not 70%.
2024
Near-zero threshold is definedPolicy
IEA definitions set a sliding cement threshold of 125-40 kgCO2e/t depending on clinker ratio.
2025
Global low-carbon ratings launch
An AA-to-G ratings system tied to third-party-verified product declarations made cement and concrete carbon classifications usable in procurement.
2025
Ghana scales calcined clay
A flash calciner exceeding 400,000 t/year began producing clinker-substitute clay; this is not zero-carbon cement.
2025
Sublime pauses commercial plantSetback
Sublime paused its planned 30,000 t/year Holyoke plant after losing an $87 million federal award.
2026
Brevik operates at industrial scaleDeployment
Brevik remained operational with 400,000 tCO2/year design capture, equal to about half the plant's emissions.
2026
Electric process makes Portland clinker
Holcim raw meal repeatedly yielded Portland-quality clinker through electric calcination and sintering; undisclosed output keeps this a proof of concept, not a pilot plant.
2026
Pure Oxyfuel research kiln startsWe are here
The 450-tonne-clinker-per-day catch4climate research kiln entered operation after first producing clinker in May; capture and storage at that rate remain unproved.
2029
GeZero targets full captureDeploymentTarget
Heidelberg plans for its Geseke project to capture and store about 700,000 tCO2/year from 2029.
2030
Announced capacity reaches 35 MtDeploymentTarget
Projects announced for 2030 total about 35 Mt/year of near-zero cement, only 10% of the IEA-aligned requirement.
2023-20505 events0 shown

Events outside the declared eras

Events outside the declared eras moved the field from calcined clay reaches 500 kilotonnes to industry net-zero deadline arrives. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.

2023
Calcined clay reaches 500 kilotonnes
Holcim opened a line rated for 500,000 t/year of cement with 50% lower CO2 than CEM I, based on company claims.
2023
Clinker-free plant is commissioned
Hoffmann Green commissioned its H2 plant with 250,000 t/year nameplate capacity; that rating is capacity, not achieved output.
2023
Alternative route meets C150
Brimstone obtained third-party ASTM C150 certification for laboratory Portland cement made from calcium-silicate rock.
2023
Cement-free concrete enters a building
About 60 tonnes of Portland-cement-free concrete were placed in foundations and shear walls during a Seattle seismic retrofit; its binder remained proprietary.
2050
Industry net-zero deadline arrivesPolicyTarget
GCCA members target net-zero concrete across the value chain by 2050; this remains a voluntary industry commitment.
— end of record · 25 shown, 0 hidden —
25 events · below the TODAY rule = scheduled, not done
03 · The data behind the verdict

Why the meters read the way they do

The learning curves and comparisons that justify each threshold's percentage. Every series is measured, with the source event linked in the timeline above.

The old curve runs out of road.Conventional cement is 610 kgCO₂e/t, leaving 485 to the 125 near-zero ceiling.One line = conventional cement intensity · kgCO₂e/t cementitious material · lower is better · 1990–2030One point = one historical industry estimate · solid grey line = observed record · hollow dashed point = GCCA target · kgCO₂e/t · lower is better · 1990–2030
Cement emissions descent toward near-zeroMost historical progress came from efficiency and clinker substitution; the curve remains far above the IEA near-zero band. The latest conventional intensity is 610 kgCO2/t cementitious material; the goal is 125 kgCO2e/t cement, leaving a computed gap of 485 kgCO2e per tonne.0450900IEA near-zero ceiling for 100% clinker cement · 125 kgCO₂e/tNet CO2 intensity of conventional cement · kgCO2/t cementitious materialObserved record → stated 2030 target756199062920116102022TARGET · 475 · 2030LATEST OBSERVED · 2022610 kgCO₂/t485 to close
GCCA/GNR · IEA · ScienceDirect · AS OF JUL 2026
Scale ranges from novel-binder pilots to industrial SCM production. The products and emissions cuts are not equivalent: the Ghana point is calcined clay, not finished cement.
Scale ranges from novel-binder pilots to industrial SCM production. The products and emissions cuts are not equivalent: the Ghana point is calcined clay, not finished cement.1001,00010,000100,000Landmark low-clinker and alternative-binder namepla… · t product/yearYear2022202320242025400,000 t product/year
NOTE - Scale ranges from novel-binder pilots to industrial SCM production. The products and emissions cuts are not equivalent: the Ghana point is calcined clay, not finished cement.
Capture equipment is moving from pilots toward million-tonne projects; the 2029 points are scheduled capacities, not operating results.
Capture equipment is moving from pilots toward million-tonne projects; the 2029 points are scheduled capacities, not operating results.100,0001.0e+6Cement-sector CO2 capture project nameplate · tCO2/yearYear2019202520291.2e+6 tCO2/year
NOTE - Capture equipment is moving from pilots toward million-tonne projects; the 2029 points are scheduled capacities, not operating results.
The earlier value is implied by IEA's reported 30% rise to 35 Mt. Both values are announced 2030 capacity, not production.
The earlier value is implied by IEA's reported 30% rise to 35 Mt. Both values are announced 2030 capacity, not production.05101520253035Announced near-zero cement capacity for 2030 · Mt cement/yearYear2024202535 Mt cement/year
NOTE - The earlier value is implied by IEA's reported 30% rise to 35 Mt. Both values are announced 2030 capacity, not production.
Efficiency improves slowly and cannot eliminate limestone process emissions; the 2030 and 2050 values are IEA pathway milestones.
Efficiency improves slowly and cannot eliminate limestone process emissions; the 2030 and 2050 values are IEA pathway milestones.00.5011.522.533.5Kiln thermal energy intensity pathway · GJ/t clinkerYear20152022203020502.9 GJ/t clinker
NOTE - Efficiency improves slowly and cannot eliminate limestone process emissions; the 2030 and 2050 values are IEA pathway milestones.
  • 100%-clinker threshold125 kgCO2e/t
  • Low-clinker threshold40 kgCO2e/t
COMPARISON - The IEA near-zero limit becomes more stringent as clinker content falls, preventing dilution from masquerading as deep decarbonization.
  • Announced capacity35 Mt/year
  • Implied required capacity350 Mt/year
COMPARISON - Announced 2030 near-zero cement capacity is only one tenth of the IEA-aligned requirement.
  • Capture nameplate400000 tCO2/year
  • Approximate plant emissions800000 tCO2/year
COMPARISON - Brevik's design captures only about half of the host plant's emissions.
  • Low-end cost premium75 %
  • High-end cost premium150 %
COMPARISON - Early CCS cement plants are estimated to cost substantially more than conventional production.
Technical notes

Read the evidence more closely

Definitions, system boundaries and experimental caveats behind the headline record.

01What near-zero excludes

“Near-zero” is not synonymous with “low-carbon.” The IEA ceiling slides from 125 kgCO₂e/t at 100% clinker to 40 kgCO₂e/t at low clinker ratios, and its principles require a physical pathway without offsets or emissions-reduction credits.

02H-UKR remains above near-zero

Hoffmann’s H-UKR is clinker-free but its 2025 cradle-to-gate EPD reported 141 kgCO₂e/t, down from 188 kgCO₂e/t in its earlier EPD. It is therefore a major reduction, but not within the IEA’s roughly 40 kgCO₂e/t low-clinker near-zero limit.

03The accounting behind evoZero

Heidelberg’s accounting distinguishes physically identical cement volumes: conventional Brevik cement is listed at 451 kgCO₂e/t, proportionally allocated evoBuild at 230, and freely allocated single-site mass-balance evoZero at 46. Products are not physically segregated; a separate non-physical variant transfers Brevik attributes to locally produced cement and claims zero through certificates.

04What the first certificates covered

DNV’s first disclosed assurance period covered 12,088.322 t of clinker produced under capture conditions and 2,389.099 tCO₂ confirmed injected. Each certificate carried 307.3 kgCO₂ reduction per tonne of clinker, net of capture, transport, storage and infrastructure impacts.

05Oxyfuel is not storage

Pure Oxyfuel burns fuel in oxygen rather than air, avoiding nitrogen dilution and producing a concentrated CO₂ stream. The catch4climate kiln demonstrates that process integration; it does not itself prove permanent storage.

06Electrification leaves process emissions

Fully electric clinker heating removes combustion emissions but does not remove limestone’s calcination CO₂. SaltX’s design aims to concentrate that stream for capture; “fully electrified” therefore does not mean “zero-emission cement.”

07Electric cement’s scaling constraints

Cambridge Electric Cement substitutes already-decarbonated recovered paste for lime flux in steel recycling. EAF temperatures drive off problematic sulfate and chloride species and favour reactive alite, but scale depends on clean paste separation, scrap chemistry and EAF capacity.

08Silicate cement’s theoretical floor

For silicate-derived Portland cement, a 2026 analysis estimated theoretical-minimum emissions of 49 kgCO₂/t, versus 609 kgCO₂/t from limestone. Its illustrative proven-unit-process route, however, requires 6.2 GJ/t, versus about 2.9 GJ/t for current limestone cement; the low-energy result remains theoretical, not achieved industrial performance.

04 · What it unlocks

If the remaining tests pass

Downstream capabilities, drawn dashed because they depend on results not yet in.

Near-Zero CementLower-carbon urbanizationFast-growing cities could build housing, transport and water infrastructure without locking in nearly conventional cement emissions.Durable carbon-storing infrastructureMineralization and CCS could make long-lived structures a destination for securely stored industrial carbon.Cleaner megaproject constructionEnergy, climate and space projects could reduce the large material emissions embedded before they begin operating.
05 · The players & the money

Who is building it-and what the money saysCapital, institutions and the global race

The teams doing the work, where they are based, and whether the money points to real delivery or only a plan.Company finance, public programmes, institutional leadership and market evidence-kept separate from valuations, forecasts and announced capacity.

The short versionCapital and institutional readout

The field is split between incumbent cement groups adding carbon capture and startups trying to avoid limestone or clinker altogether. The first industrial CCS plant is operating, but most near-zero capacity is still announced rather than producing, and early plants carry a large cost premium.

Players

Who is building itCompanies, laboratories and programmes

Heidelberg Materials

Germany / Norway

Operates Brevik CCS, the first industrial-scale carbon-capture facility attached to a cement plant.

Sublime Systems

USA

Developing ambient-temperature electrochemical cement from non-carbonate rocks and industrial wastes.

Brimstone

USA

Developing a calcium-silicate rock refinery that co-produces Portland cement and other industrial materials.

Companies, laboratories and programmes working on this problem
PlayerCountryWhat they are doingFundingNamed investorsSource
Heidelberg MaterialscompanyGermany / Norway

Operates Brevik CCS, the first industrial-scale carbon-capture facility attached to a cement plant.

Designed to capture roughly 400,000 tCO2/year, about half of the plant's emissions.

Not disclosedNot disclosedSource · heidelbergmaterials.com
Sublime SystemscompanyUSA

Developing ambient-temperature electrochemical cement from non-carbonate rocks and industrial wastes.

The Holyoke commercial-factory schedule remained unachieved and later faced a federal-funding pause.

Strategic investments · $75M combined · Sep 2024CRH · HolcimSource · sublime-systems.com
BrimstonecompanyUSA

Developing a calcium-silicate rock refinery that co-produces Portland cement and other industrial materials.

DOE selected a proposed demonstration for up to $189M cost share; selection is not an operating plant or cumulative company funding.

Not disclosedNot disclosedSource · energy.gov
LC3 ProjectnonprofitInternational / Switzerland

Develops and transfers limestone-calcined-clay cement systems that reduce clinker using widely available clays.

Not disclosedNot disclosedSource · lc3.ch
EcocemcompanyIreland / EU

Developing ACT, a low-clinker cement formulation intended to work within existing standards and plants.

Its 70% reduction and 2035 scale language are company projections, not sector-wide achieved results.

Not disclosedNot disclosedSource · ecocemglobal.com
06 · Sources

Where every number comes from

12 sources — every figure on this page traces to one.