howclose.to
CHEAP SPACE LAUNCH

The problemsEarth & SpaceCheap Space Launch

Updated · July 2026

How close are we to cheap space launch?When does a ride to orbit get cheap?

When does a ride to orbit get cheap?How close are we to cheap space launch?

Reusable first stages have cut the price of orbit by more than 90% since the Shuttle, but the sub-$100/kg goal depends on rapid full reuse that Starship has not yet demonstrated.Rockets can now land and fly again, which made space far cheaper - but the truly cheap ticket needs a whole rocket you can reuse in days, and nobody has that yet.

Current stageScalingScaling toward dependable, competitive operationMaking it work at useful scale
Read the evidence Where we stand
The path so far

Recorded milestones

  1. Space Shuttle first flight

  2. Starship V3 deploys satellites

Open tests · conceptual branches

TODAY
  1. OPEN TEST02 ↗
    Reuse the whole rocket, fastRapid full reuseThe upper stage is the hard half: it comes back from orbit faster and hotter. No one has caught or reflown one yet.Recover and quickly refly BOTH stages, including the orbital upper stage, with minimal refurbishment
  2. OPEN TEST03 ↗
    Make the ticket to orbit truly cheapSub-$100/kg commodity priceMusk's target is under $100/kg; the cheapest ride you can actually buy today is still roughly $1,500/kg on Falcon Heavy.Broadly available marginal price below $100/kg to LEO, sustained without bundling or subsidy
TODAY
OPEN TEST02 ↗
Reuse the whole rocket, fastRapid full reuseThe upper stage is the hard half: it comes back from orbit faster and hotter. No one has caught or reflown one yet.Recover and quickly refly BOTH stages, including the orbital upper stage, with minimal refurbishment
OPEN TEST03 ↗
Make the ticket to orbit truly cheapSub-$100/kg commodity priceMusk's target is under $100/kg; the cheapest ride you can actually buy today is still roughly $1,500/kg on Falcon Heavy.Broadly available marginal price below $100/kg to LEO, sustained without bundling or subsidy
Milestones are in recorded order. Open tests are separate questions, not a forecast.Milestones are in date order. Open tests are separate tests, not a promise.
Cheap Space LaunchWhere we stand

The path shows Starship V3 deploys satellites. Open thresholds are separate tests in a conceptual map, not a forecast. No single percentage represents progress.

01 · Where we standWhere we stand

Where we standWhere we stand

The current stage, the evidence recorded, and the single threshold that gates the next stage.The stage reached, the evidence recorded, and the one test still blocking the next step.

What the evidence has shownWhat the evidence has shown

Rockets can now land and fly again, which made space far cheaper - but the truly cheap ticket needs a whole rocket you can reuse in days, and nobody has that yet.Reusable first stages have cut the price of orbit by more than 90% since the Shuttle, but the sub-$100/kg goal depends on rapid full reuse that Starship has not yet demonstrated.

1 of 3 tests recorded1 of 3 thresholds achieved open
✓Land the big first stage and fly it againReusable first-stage launchAchieved
Reuse the whole rocket, fastRapid full reuseOpen test
Make the ticket to orbit truly cheapSub-$100/kg commodity priceOpen test

The next testBlocking threshold

Reuse the whole rocket, fastRapid full reuse

First Starship upper-stage (Ship) tower-catch attempt, targeted for Flight 13/14 in 2026First Starship upper-stage (Ship) tower-catch attempt, targeted for Flight 13/14 in 2026

02 · Thresholds & evidenceThresholds & evidence

What would count as proof?What would count as proof?

A clear test, the evidence behind it, and the limits of the claim.A clear test, the evidence behind it, and what it still leaves open.

✓Achieved · Mar 2017

Land the big first stage and fly it againReusable first-stage launch

The rocket booster no longer gets thrown away after one flight, which is most of why launch got cheaper.Recover and refly the booster routinely, cutting $/kg to LEO by an order of magnitude

Recorded result Falcon 9 first reflight; list price ~$3,000/kg vs ~$54,500/kg on the Shuttle

Still to demonstrateWhat this does not establishA separate system can still have different conditions and results.The named measurement has no wider implication until the supporting system test is also shown.

View every evidence record

Open test

Reuse the whole rocket, fastRapid full reuse

The upper stage is the hard half: it comes back from orbit faster and hotter. No one has caught or reflown one yet.Recover and quickly refly BOTH stages, including the orbital upper stage, with minimal refurbishment

Next test: First Starship upper-stage (Ship) tower-catch attempt, targeted for Flight 13/14 in 2026

Open test

Make the ticket to orbit truly cheapSub-$100/kg commodity price

Musk's target is under $100/kg; the cheapest ride you can actually buy today is still roughly $1,500/kg on Falcon Heavy.Broadly available marginal price below $100/kg to LEO, sustained without bundling or subsidy

Next test: Fully-reusable Starship reaching high cadence and publishing commercial pricing below $1,000/kg

03 · The recordThe record

The record behind the verdictThe record behind the verdict

Major milestones and smaller context events share one source-linked record. Scheduled targets are marked separately from recorded events.Milestones, smaller events and setbacks share one sourced record. Scheduled targets are marked separately from recorded events.

Event key
TheoryExperimentFundingSetbackPolicyDeployment Future / scheduled
1957-19801 event1 shown

The expendable era - high $/kg

Recorded event: “Sputnik 1 - first orbital launch”.

1957
Sputnik 1 - first orbital launchDeployment
The Soviet R-7 placed the first artificial satellite in orbit, opening the era of fully expendable rockets thrown away after a single flight at very high cost per kilogram.
1981-20072 events1 shown

The Shuttle's false promise of reuse

This record spans “Space Shuttle first flight (STS-1)” to “DC-X Delta Clipper vertical landing”.

1981
Space Shuttle first flight (STS-1)Deployment
Columbia flew the first reusable orbiter, but reuse did not lower cost - refurbishing the orbiter and boosters between flights was so labor-intensive that per-launch cost stayed roughly $1B+, higher than many expendables.
1993
DC-X Delta Clipper vertical landing
The DC-X prototype demonstrated vertical takeoff and vertical powered landing for the first time, an early proof-of-concept for reusable boosters that later inspired Falcon 9 and New Shepard.
2008-20226 events3 shown

Partial reuse - Falcon 9

This record spans “Falcon 1 reaches orbit” to “Starlink drives rapid Falcon 9 reuse”.

2008
Falcon 1 reaches orbitExperiment
On its fourth attempt Falcon 1 became the first privately developed liquid-fueled rocket to reach orbit, proving a startup could build an orbital launcher and keeping SpaceX alive.
2010
Falcon 9 debut flight
The first Falcon 9 reached orbit, giving SpaceX a medium-lift workhorse designed from the outset to eventually recover and reuse its first stage.
2015
First orbital-class booster landingExperiment
After the Orbcomm OG-2 launch a Falcon 9 first stage returned and landed upright - the first time an orbital-class booster was recovered intact.
2017
First booster reflight (SES-10)Deployment
SpaceX relaunched a previously flown Falcon 9 first stage to orbit and landed it again - the first reuse of an orbital booster, the moment reusability savings began moving from promised to demonstrated.
2018
Falcon Heavy first flight
Falcon Heavy flew for the first time and landed its two side boosters simultaneously, briefly the most capable operational rocket and extending reuse to heavy lift.
2023-203011 events3 shown

Toward full reuse - Starship

This record spans “Starship first integrated flight test” to “Full rapid reuse of both stages” and includes scheduled targets.

2023
Starship first integrated flight test
The first full Starship + Super Heavy stack lifted off but lost multiple engines, failed to separate, and was destroyed about four minutes in - an explosive but data-rich first attempt at a fully reusable super-heavy rocket.
2024
Both Starship stages complete controlled splashdowns
On Flight 4, Super Heavy completed a soft Gulf splashdown and Ship survived hypersonic re-entry to make its first landing burn and controlled Indian Ocean splashdown. Neither stage was recovered for reuse.
2024
First Super Heavy tower catch (Flight 5)Experiment
On Flight 5 the Super Heavy booster flew back to the launch site and was caught in mid-air by the tower's 'chopstick' arms - the first catch of an orbital-class booster and a key step toward rapid reuse.
2025
Super Heavy booster flies a second time
Flight 9 launched the Super Heavy booster previously flown on Flight 7, the Starship program's first booster reflight. The booster completed ascent but was lost during its return, demonstrating launch-side reuse rather than repeat recovery.
2025
Starship deploys its first payloads (Flight 10)
After a run of upper-stage failures earlier in 2025, Flight 10 successfully deployed eight Starlink mass simulators and completed a controlled splashdown - the first successful payload deploy from Starship.
2025
New Glenn lands its booster
New Glenn's second mission deployed NASA's ESCAPADE spacecraft and landed its first stage on the Jacklyn platform. The landing broadened orbital-booster recovery beyond SpaceX, but the stage had not yet demonstrated reflight.
2026
Starship V3 flies and deploys satellites (Flight 12)Deployment
Flight 12 was the first flight of the larger Starship Version 3, deploying 20 Starlink mass simulators plus two functional V3-class satellites - though the booster landing was not achieved.
2026
Falcon 9 booster reaches 36 flights
Booster B1067 launched and landed for a record 36th time while deploying 29 Starlink satellites, extending the demonstrated life of an orbital-class first stage. Falcon 9's upper stage remained expendable.
2026
China recovers an orbital-launch first stageWe are here
A Long March-10B first stage returned under control and was caught by a net on a sea platform, China's first controlled carrier-rocket recovery. Recovery was achieved; reflight and lower launch cost were not yet demonstrated.
2027
First upper-stage (Ship) tower catch attemptExperimentTarget
Planned milestone: catching the returning Starship upper stage at the tower the way the booster already is - the still-unproven half of full reusability. Date and success are not yet established.
2028
Full rapid reuse of both stagesDeploymentTarget
Target: routinely reflying both the Super Heavy booster and Starship with minimal refurbishment - the actual mechanism by which launch cost is meant to fall dramatically. Not yet demonstrated.
2030-20301 event0 shown

Additional records

Scheduled target: “Target: sub-$100/kg to orbit”.

2030
Target: sub-$100/kg to orbitDeploymentTarget
Long-stated aspirational goal of driving marginal launch cost below roughly $100 per kilogram - repeatedly promised for Starship but not yet realized or independently verified.
— end of record · 21 events shown —
04 · The dataThe data

The data behind the verdictThe data behind the verdict

Read each measure with its units, conditions, uncertainty and source; targets remain distinct from observations.Read each chart with its conditions, limits and source. Future targets remain distinct from recorded results.

Price to launch payload to low Earth orbitPrice to launch payload to low Earth orbit
Scale

Space Shuttle - full-cost per kg to LEO (CSIS, constant FY2021 $) · 54,500 USD/kg to LEO · 1981 · verification unspecified

Price to launch payload to low Earth orbit over time, with measured values, projected values, and a goal at 100 USD/kg to LEO.1001,00010,000Price to launch payload to low Earth orbit · USD/kg to LEOYear1981201620182026GOAL 100 · ~$100/kg - SpaceX Starship long-r…Space Shuttle - full-cost p…Falcon 9 (reusable) - per k…Falcon Heavy (reusable) - p…Starship - TARGET price, no…~1,400 USD/kg to LEO to goal
NOTE - Starship's ~$100/kg is a design target that depends on unproven reuse cadence, not an achieved price - shown as projected.
View data table
All metric observations
DateValueStatusCondition / labelVerificationCICensoringSource
198154500 USD/kg to LEOobservedSpace Shuttle - full-cost per kg to LEO (CSIS, constant FY2021 $)unspecified—noneCSIS Aerospace Security - Cost of Space Launch to LEO
20162720 USD/kg to LEOobservedFalcon 9 (reusable) - per kg to LEO (CSIS, constant FY2021 $)unspecified—noneCSIS Aerospace Security - Cost of Space Launch to LEO
20181500 USD/kg to LEOobservedFalcon Heavy (reusable) - per kg to LEO (CSIS, constant FY2021 $)unspecified—noneCSIS Aerospace Security - Cost of Space Launch to LEO
2026100 USD/kg to LEOtargetStarship - TARGET price, not achieved (~$100/kg claimed; ~$250-600/kg more likely near-term)unspecified—noneCSIS Aerospace Security - Cost of Space Launch to LEO
AS OF July 2026

Methods & conditions

Under the measurement.

The boundary of a measurement changes what it means.

Technical note 1 of 7

Partial reuse is mature at fleet scale

Method and conditions

As of 31 March 2026, Falcon 9 had completed approximately 620 orbital launches, with 39 of 40 Q1 2026 Falcon missions using flight-proven boosters; the maximum demonstrated first-stage life was then 34 flights. This shows mature partial reuse at fleet scale, not full reuse.

Source notes

Technical notes and sources

Each note keeps its authored method, conditions and citations available for review.

Partial reuse is mature at fleet scale

As of 31 March 2026, Falcon 9 had completed approximately 620 orbital launches, with 39 of 40 Q1 2026 Falcon missions using flight-proven boosters; the maximum demonstrated first-stage life was then 34 flights. This shows mature partial reuse at fleet scale, not full reuse.

Qualified lifetime is not demonstrated lifetime

Falcon boosters are now described as qualified for up to 40 flights, versus the achieved record of 36 by 9 July 2026. Qualification, demonstrated flights and economically useful lifetime should remain separate fields.

The upper stage remains expendable

Falcon 9's second stage remains expendable. Fairing halves and the first stage are recovered, but every flight still requires a newly manufactured orbital stage-the major architectural difference from the rapid-full-reuse threshold.

The cost reduction is company-reported

SpaceX reports that partial reuse reduced cost per tonne by approximately 85% relative to a historical average of $18,500/kg. This is a company-reported cost comparison, not a public customer price or independently audited marginal launch cost.

Manifested payload changes effective cost

Falcon missions averaged approximately 13 tonnes delivered per launch from 2023 onward, materially below the advertised 22.8-tonne maximum. Price divided by maximum capacity therefore understates effective dollars per manifested kilogram on typical missions.

Starship's V3 capacity is still a design target

Starship V3 is designed for 100 tonnes to orbit in a fully reusable configuration; this was not demonstrated by Flight 12. SpaceX still described operational payload delivery as expected in the second half of 2026 and identified Ship catch and reflight as remaining milestones.

New Glenn's reuse case is unproven

New Glenn's first stage is designed for at least 25 flights and up to 45 tonnes to low Earth orbit, but one landing does not validate that lifetime, refurbishment burden or launch economics.

05 · What it unlocksWhat it unlocks

If the remaining tests pass.If the remaining tests pass.

Downstream capabilities remain conditional on results that are not yet in.These are possible next capabilities, conditional on results that are not yet in.

TODAY
  1. PASSED · Mar 201701 ↗
    Land the big first stage and fly it againReusable first-stage launchThe rocket booster no longer gets thrown away after one flight, which is most of why launch got cheaper.Recover and refly the booster routinely, cutting $/kg to LEO by an order of magnitude
  2. OPEN TEST02 ↗
    Reuse the whole rocket, fastRapid full reuseThe upper stage is the hard half: it comes back from orbit faster and hotter. No one has caught or reflown one yet.Recover and quickly refly BOTH stages, including the orbital upper stage, with minimal refurbishment
  3. OPEN TEST03 ↗
    Make the ticket to orbit truly cheapSub-$100/kg commodity priceMusk's target is under $100/kg; the cheapest ride you can actually buy today is still roughly $1,500/kg on Falcon Heavy.Broadly available marginal price below $100/kg to LEO, sustained without bundling or subsidy
PASSED · Mar 201701 ↗
Land the big first stage and fly it againReusable first-stage launchThe rocket booster no longer gets thrown away after one flight, which is most of why launch got cheaper.Recover and refly the booster routinely, cutting $/kg to LEO by an order of magnitude
TODAY
OPEN TEST02 ↗
Reuse the whole rocket, fastRapid full reuseThe upper stage is the hard half: it comes back from orbit faster and hotter. No one has caught or reflown one yet.Recover and quickly refly BOTH stages, including the orbital upper stage, with minimal refurbishment
OPEN TEST03 ↗
Make the ticket to orbit truly cheapSub-$100/kg commodity priceMusk's target is under $100/kg; the cheapest ride you can actually buy today is still roughly $1,500/kg on Falcon Heavy.Broadly available marginal price below $100/kg to LEO, sustained without bundling or subsidy

Possible, if the open tests pass.

  1. Cheap satellite mega-constellations

    This is a possible benefit only if cheap satellite mega-constellations works safely, reliably and at useful scale.Potential benefit only if the stated use (Cheap satellite mega-constellations) is demonstrated with evidence for safety, reliability, affordability and scale.

  2. Big science and deep-space infrastructure

    This is a possible benefit only if big science and deep-space infrastructure works safely, reliably and at useful scale.Potential benefit only if the stated use (Big science and deep-space infrastructure) is demonstrated with evidence for safety, reliability, affordability and scale.

  3. Off-Earth industry and settlement

    This is a possible benefit only if off-earth industry and settlement works safely, reliably and at useful scale.Potential benefit only if the stated use (Off-Earth industry and settlement) is demonstrated with evidence for safety, reliability, affordability and scale.

These are possible outcomes, if the open tests pass. They are conditional, not promises.
06 · The players & the moneyThe players & the money

Meet the builders.Meet the builders.

The organisations, their approaches, and the evidence behind them.The teams doing the work, the money around them, and what the record can support.

USA · company

SpaceX

Falcon 9 partial reuse, rideshare scale and Starship full-reuse development.

Funding contextFunding not recorded in this record.Private-company funding, launch margins and Starship marginal cost are opaque; list prices are not audited costs.
Named investorsInvestors not recorded in this record.

Capital is context, not a demonstration.

Company source ↗
View every builder record

SpaceX

USA · company · Falcon 9 partial reuse, rideshare scale and Starship full-reuse development.

Funding: Funding not recorded in this record.

Private-company funding, launch margins and Starship marginal cost are opaque; list prices are not audited costs.

Company source ↗

Rocket Lab

USA / New Zealand · company · Operational Electron small launcher, Neutron medium-lift development and vertically integrated space systems.

Funding: Funding not recorded in this record.

2025 audited revenue was $601.8M, of which $199.0M was launch-services revenue; no venture-round field is used for this public company.

Company source ↗

Firefly Aerospace

USA · company · Alpha launch vehicle, Elytra orbital vehicles and Blue Ghost lunar services.

Funding: IPO · $998.6M aggregate offering · Aug 2025

IPO offering proceeds are capital raised, not revenue; 2025 net loss was $298.3M.

Company source ↗

Stoke Space

USA · company · Nova medium launcher designed for reusable booster and upper stage.

Funding: Series C · $260M · Jan 2025

Full reusability and orbital operation remain unachieved.

Company source ↗

Isar Aerospace

Germany · company · Spectrum small/medium launcher and European serial-production strategy.

Funding: Series D · €270M signed · Jun 2026

Financing does not erase Spectrum's failed first orbital attempt or prove production cadence.

Company source ↗

Arianespace / ArianeGroup

Europe · company · Ariane 6 and Vega launch services supporting European institutional access to orbit.

Funding: Funding not recorded in this record.

Institutional programme funding is not represented as a startup financing round.

Company source ↗
07 · SourcesSources

Follow the evidence.Follow the evidence.

40 sources — every figure on this page traces to one.40 sources — every figure on this page traces to one.

Source · what this page citesScope and limits
  1. 01

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  2. 02

    Our World in Data - Cost of space launches to LEO

    Read source ↗ourworldindata.org

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  3. 03

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  4. 04

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  5. 05

    Timeline · Sputnik 1 - first orbital launch

    Read source ↗en.wikipedia.org

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  6. 06

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  7. 07

    Timeline · DC-X Delta Clipper vertical landing

    Read source ↗en.wikipedia.org

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  8. 08

    Timeline · Falcon 1 reaches orbit

    Read source ↗en.wikipedia.org

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  9. 09

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  10. 10

    Timeline · First orbital-class booster landing

    Read source ↗spacenews.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  11. 11

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  12. 12

    Timeline · Falcon Heavy first flight

    Read source ↗en.wikipedia.org

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  13. 13

    Timeline · Starship first integrated flight test

    Read source ↗en.wikipedia.org

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  14. 14

    Timeline · Both Starship stages complete controlled splashdowns

    Read source ↗spacex.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  15. 15

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  16. 16

    Timeline · Super Heavy booster flies a second time

    Read source ↗spacex.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  17. 17

    Timeline · New Glenn lands its booster

    Read source ↗blueorigin.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  18. 18

    Timeline · Falcon 9 booster reaches 36 flights

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  19. 19

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  20. 20

    Engineer note · Partial reuse is mature at fleet scale

    Read source ↗content.spacex.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  21. 21

    Engineer note · Qualified lifetime is not demonstrated lifetime

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  22. 22

    Engineer note · New Glenn's reuse case is unproven

    Read source ↗blueorigin.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  23. 23

    companies · SpaceX

    Read source ↗spacex.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  24. 24

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  25. 25

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  26. 26

    companies · Stoke Space

    Read source ↗stokespace.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  27. 27

    companies · Isar Aerospace

    Read source ↗isaraerospace.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  28. 28

    companies · Arianespace / ArianeGroup

    Read source ↗arianespace.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  29. 29

    people · Elon Musk

    Read source ↗spacex.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  30. 30

    people · Peter Beck

    Read source ↗rocketlabusa.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  31. 31

    people · Andy Lapsa

    Read source ↗stokespace.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  32. 32

    market · $613B global space economy

    Read source ↗globenewswire.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  33. 33

    geography · United States

    Read source ↗brycetech.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  34. 34

    geography · Europe

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  35. 35

    geography · India

    Read source ↗isro.gov.in

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  36. 36

    SpaceX official site

    Read source ↗spacex.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  37. 37

    Rocket Lab official site

    Read source ↗rocketlabusa.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  38. 38

    Firefly Aerospace official site

    Read source ↗fireflyspace.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  39. 39

    Stoke Space official site

    Read source ↗stokespace.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  40. 40

    Isar Aerospace official site

    Read source ↗isaraerospace.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

Sources describe evidence. Inclusion is not endorsement.