Updated · July 2026
How close are we to cheap space launch?When does a ride to orbit get cheap?
When does a ride to orbit get cheap?How close are we to cheap space launch?
Reusable first stages have cut the price of orbit by more than 90% since the Shuttle, but the sub-$100/kg goal depends on rapid full reuse that Starship has not yet demonstrated.Rockets can now land and fly again, which made space far cheaper - but the truly cheap ticket needs a whole rocket you can reuse in days, and nobody has that yet.
Recorded milestones
Space Shuttle first flight
Starship V3 deploys satellites
Open tests · conceptual branches
- OPEN TEST02 ↗Reuse the whole rocket, fastRapid full reuseThe upper stage is the hard half: it comes back from orbit faster and hotter. No one has caught or reflown one yet.Recover and quickly refly BOTH stages, including the orbital upper stage, with minimal refurbishment
- OPEN TEST03 ↗Make the ticket to orbit truly cheapSub-$100/kg commodity priceMusk's target is under $100/kg; the cheapest ride you can actually buy today is still roughly $1,500/kg on Falcon Heavy.Broadly available marginal price below $100/kg to LEO, sustained without bundling or subsidy
The path shows Starship V3 deploys satellites. Open thresholds are separate tests in a conceptual map, not a forecast. No single percentage represents progress.
Where we standWhere we stand
The current stage, the evidence recorded, and the single threshold that gates the next stage.The stage reached, the evidence recorded, and the one test still blocking the next step.
What the evidence has shownWhat the evidence has shown
Rockets can now land and fly again, which made space far cheaper - but the truly cheap ticket needs a whole rocket you can reuse in days, and nobody has that yet.Reusable first stages have cut the price of orbit by more than 90% since the Shuttle, but the sub-$100/kg goal depends on rapid full reuse that Starship has not yet demonstrated.
The next testBlocking threshold
Reuse the whole rocket, fastRapid full reuseFirst Starship upper-stage (Ship) tower-catch attempt, targeted for Flight 13/14 in 2026First Starship upper-stage (Ship) tower-catch attempt, targeted for Flight 13/14 in 2026
What would count as proof?What would count as proof?
A clear test, the evidence behind it, and the limits of the claim.A clear test, the evidence behind it, and what it still leaves open.
Land the big first stage and fly it againReusable first-stage launch
The rocket booster no longer gets thrown away after one flight, which is most of why launch got cheaper.Recover and refly the booster routinely, cutting $/kg to LEO by an order of magnitude
Recorded result Falcon 9 first reflight; list price ~$3,000/kg vs ~$54,500/kg on the Shuttle
SOURCE RECORD
CSIS Aerospace Security - Cost of Space Launch to LEO ↗Timeline · First booster reflight (SES-10) ↗Still to demonstrateWhat this does not establishA separate system can still have different conditions and results.The named measurement has no wider implication until the supporting system test is also shown.
View every evidence record
Achieved
Land the big first stage and fly it againReusable first-stage launch
The rocket booster no longer gets thrown away after one flight, which is most of why launch got cheaper.Recover and refly the booster routinely, cutting $/kg to LEO by an order of magnitude
Recorded result: Mar 2017 · Falcon 9 first reflight; list price ~$3,000/kg vs ~$54,500/kg on the Shuttle
CSIS Aerospace Security - Cost of Space Launch to LEO ↗Timeline · First booster reflight (SES-10) ↗
Open test
Reuse the whole rocket, fastRapid full reuse
The upper stage is the hard half: it comes back from orbit faster and hotter. No one has caught or reflown one yet.Recover and quickly refly BOTH stages, including the orbital upper stage, with minimal refurbishment
Next test: First Starship upper-stage (Ship) tower-catch attempt, targeted for Flight 13/14 in 2026
Open test
Make the ticket to orbit truly cheapSub-$100/kg commodity price
Musk's target is under $100/kg; the cheapest ride you can actually buy today is still roughly $1,500/kg on Falcon Heavy.Broadly available marginal price below $100/kg to LEO, sustained without bundling or subsidy
Next test: Fully-reusable Starship reaching high cadence and publishing commercial pricing below $1,000/kg
The record behind the verdictThe record behind the verdict
Major milestones and smaller context events share one source-linked record. Scheduled targets are marked separately from recorded events.Milestones, smaller events and setbacks share one sourced record. Scheduled targets are marked separately from recorded events.
Event key
The expendable era - high $/kg
Recorded event: “Sputnik 1 - first orbital launch”.
The Shuttle's false promise of reuse
This record spans “Space Shuttle first flight (STS-1)” to “DC-X Delta Clipper vertical landing”.
Partial reuse - Falcon 9
This record spans “Falcon 1 reaches orbit” to “Starlink drives rapid Falcon 9 reuse”.
Toward full reuse - Starship
This record spans “Starship first integrated flight test” to “Full rapid reuse of both stages” and includes scheduled targets.
Additional records
Scheduled target: “Target: sub-$100/kg to orbit”.
The data behind the verdictThe data behind the verdict
Read each measure with its units, conditions, uncertainty and source; targets remain distinct from observations.Read each chart with its conditions, limits and source. Future targets remain distinct from recorded results.
Space Shuttle - full-cost per kg to LEO (CSIS, constant FY2021 $) · 54,500 USD/kg to LEO · 1981 · verification unspecified
Methods & conditions
Under the measurement.
The boundary of a measurement changes what it means.
Partial reuse is mature at fleet scale
Method and conditions
As of 31 March 2026, Falcon 9 had completed approximately 620 orbital launches, with 39 of 40 Q1 2026 Falcon missions using flight-proven boosters; the maximum demonstrated first-stage life was then 34 flights. This shows mature partial reuse at fleet scale, not full reuse.
Source notes
Technical notes and sources
Each note keeps its authored method, conditions and citations available for review.
Partial reuse is mature at fleet scale
As of 31 March 2026, Falcon 9 had completed approximately 620 orbital launches, with 39 of 40 Q1 2026 Falcon missions using flight-proven boosters; the maximum demonstrated first-stage life was then 34 flights. This shows mature partial reuse at fleet scale, not full reuse.
Qualified lifetime is not demonstrated lifetime
Falcon boosters are now described as qualified for up to 40 flights, versus the achieved record of 36 by 9 July 2026. Qualification, demonstrated flights and economically useful lifetime should remain separate fields.
The upper stage remains expendable
Falcon 9's second stage remains expendable. Fairing halves and the first stage are recovered, but every flight still requires a newly manufactured orbital stage-the major architectural difference from the rapid-full-reuse threshold.
The cost reduction is company-reported
SpaceX reports that partial reuse reduced cost per tonne by approximately 85% relative to a historical average of $18,500/kg. This is a company-reported cost comparison, not a public customer price or independently audited marginal launch cost.
Manifested payload changes effective cost
Falcon missions averaged approximately 13 tonnes delivered per launch from 2023 onward, materially below the advertised 22.8-tonne maximum. Price divided by maximum capacity therefore understates effective dollars per manifested kilogram on typical missions.
Starship's V3 capacity is still a design target
Starship V3 is designed for 100 tonnes to orbit in a fully reusable configuration; this was not demonstrated by Flight 12. SpaceX still described operational payload delivery as expected in the second half of 2026 and identified Ship catch and reflight as remaining milestones.
New Glenn's reuse case is unproven
New Glenn's first stage is designed for at least 25 flights and up to 45 tonnes to low Earth orbit, but one landing does not validate that lifetime, refurbishment burden or launch economics.
If the remaining tests pass.If the remaining tests pass.
Downstream capabilities remain conditional on results that are not yet in.These are possible next capabilities, conditional on results that are not yet in.
- PASSED · Mar 201701 ↗Land the big first stage and fly it againReusable first-stage launchThe rocket booster no longer gets thrown away after one flight, which is most of why launch got cheaper.Recover and refly the booster routinely, cutting $/kg to LEO by an order of magnitude
- OPEN TEST02 ↗Reuse the whole rocket, fastRapid full reuseThe upper stage is the hard half: it comes back from orbit faster and hotter. No one has caught or reflown one yet.Recover and quickly refly BOTH stages, including the orbital upper stage, with minimal refurbishment
- OPEN TEST03 ↗Make the ticket to orbit truly cheapSub-$100/kg commodity priceMusk's target is under $100/kg; the cheapest ride you can actually buy today is still roughly $1,500/kg on Falcon Heavy.Broadly available marginal price below $100/kg to LEO, sustained without bundling or subsidy
Possible, if the open tests pass.
Cheap satellite mega-constellations
This is a possible benefit only if cheap satellite mega-constellations works safely, reliably and at useful scale.Potential benefit only if the stated use (Cheap satellite mega-constellations) is demonstrated with evidence for safety, reliability, affordability and scale.
Big science and deep-space infrastructure
This is a possible benefit only if big science and deep-space infrastructure works safely, reliably and at useful scale.Potential benefit only if the stated use (Big science and deep-space infrastructure) is demonstrated with evidence for safety, reliability, affordability and scale.
Off-Earth industry and settlement
This is a possible benefit only if off-earth industry and settlement works safely, reliably and at useful scale.Potential benefit only if the stated use (Off-Earth industry and settlement) is demonstrated with evidence for safety, reliability, affordability and scale.
Meet the builders.Meet the builders.
The organisations, their approaches, and the evidence behind them.The teams doing the work, the money around them, and what the record can support.
USA · company
SpaceX
Falcon 9 partial reuse, rideshare scale and Starship full-reuse development.
Capital is context, not a demonstration.
Company source ↗View every builder record
SpaceX
USA · company · Falcon 9 partial reuse, rideshare scale and Starship full-reuse development.
Funding: Funding not recorded in this record.
Private-company funding, launch margins and Starship marginal cost are opaque; list prices are not audited costs.
Company source ↗Rocket Lab
USA / New Zealand · company · Operational Electron small launcher, Neutron medium-lift development and vertically integrated space systems.
Funding: Funding not recorded in this record.
2025 audited revenue was $601.8M, of which $199.0M was launch-services revenue; no venture-round field is used for this public company.
Company source ↗Firefly Aerospace
USA · company · Alpha launch vehicle, Elytra orbital vehicles and Blue Ghost lunar services.
Funding: IPO · $998.6M aggregate offering · Aug 2025
IPO offering proceeds are capital raised, not revenue; 2025 net loss was $298.3M.
Company source ↗Stoke Space
USA · company · Nova medium launcher designed for reusable booster and upper stage.
Funding: Series C · $260M · Jan 2025
Full reusability and orbital operation remain unachieved.
Company source ↗Isar Aerospace
Germany · company · Spectrum small/medium launcher and European serial-production strategy.
Funding: Series D · €270M signed · Jun 2026
Financing does not erase Spectrum's failed first orbital attempt or prove production cadence.
Company source ↗Arianespace / ArianeGroup
Europe · company · Ariane 6 and Vega launch services supporting European institutional access to orbit.
Funding: Funding not recorded in this record.
Institutional programme funding is not represented as a startup financing round.
Company source ↗Follow the evidence.Follow the evidence.
40 sources — every figure on this page traces to one.40 sources — every figure on this page traces to one.
- 01
CSIS Aerospace Security - Cost of Space Launch to LEO
Read source ↗aerospace.csis.orgUsed on this pageAll 7 uses across 4 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 02
Our World in Data - Cost of space launches to LEO
Read source ↗ourworldindata.orgScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 03
Wikipedia - List of Starship launches
Read source ↗en.wikipedia.orgUsed on this pageAll 4 uses across 4 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 04
Wikipedia - SpaceX Starship
Read source ↗en.wikipedia.orgScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 05
Timeline · Sputnik 1 - first orbital launch
Read source ↗en.wikipedia.orgUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 1 destination
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 06
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
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Timeline · DC-X Delta Clipper vertical landing
Read source ↗en.wikipedia.orgUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 08
Timeline · Falcon 1 reaches orbit
Read source ↗en.wikipedia.orgUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 09
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
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Timeline · First orbital-class booster landing
Read source ↗spacenews.comUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 11
Timeline · First booster reflight (SES-10)
Read source ↗spacenews.comScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 12
Timeline · Falcon Heavy first flight
Read source ↗en.wikipedia.orgUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
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Timeline · Starship first integrated flight test
Read source ↗en.wikipedia.orgUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 14
Timeline · Both Starship stages complete controlled splashdowns
Read source ↗spacex.comUsed on this pageScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 15
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 16
Timeline · Super Heavy booster flies a second time
Read source ↗spacex.comUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 17
Timeline · New Glenn lands its booster
Read source ↗blueorigin.comUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 18
Timeline · Falcon 9 booster reaches 36 flights
Read source ↗space.comUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 19
Timeline · China recovers an orbital-launch first stage
Read source ↗english.spacechina.comUsed on this pageScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 20
Engineer note · Partial reuse is mature at fleet scale
Read source ↗content.spacex.comScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 21
Engineer note · Qualified lifetime is not demonstrated lifetime
Read source ↗sec.govScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 22
Engineer note · New Glenn's reuse case is unproven
Read source ↗blueorigin.comScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
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companies · Isar Aerospace
Read source ↗isaraerospace.comUsed on this pageAll 3 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
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companies · Arianespace / ArianeGroup
Read source ↗arianespace.comUsed on this pageAll 1 use across 1 destination
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
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market · $613B global space economy
Read source ↗globenewswire.comUsed on this pageAll 1 use across 1 destination
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
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geography · United States
Read source ↗brycetech.comUsed on this pageAll 2 uses across 2 destinations
Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
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SpaceX official site
Read source ↗spacex.comScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 37
Rocket Lab official site
Read source ↗rocketlabusa.comScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 38
Firefly Aerospace official site
Read source ↗fireflyspace.comScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 39
Stoke Space official site
Read source ↗stokespace.comScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
- 40
Isar Aerospace official site
Read source ↗isaraerospace.comScope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.
Sources describe evidence. Inclusion is not endorsement.