How close are we to pulling CO2 from the air affordably?Can we vacuum carbon out of the sky?
or, simply: Can we vacuum carbon out of the sky?or, precisely: How close are we to pulling CO2 from the air affordably?
Plants that pull CO2 straight from the air are running; the open question is cost per tonne and scaling from thousands to billions of tonnes.Machines can already pull carbon from the sky. The challenge is doing it cheaply - and a million times bigger.
Deep Sky issues independently verified DAC credits - Isometric independently verified and issued North America's first certified DAC removal credits from Deep Sky Alpha, also the first DAC credits carrying the Core Carbon Principles label. The public announcement did not disclose the credited tonnage. Next up - STRATOS targets sequestration (expected 2026).
State of playWhere direct air capture stands right now
The current stage, the honest metric, and the single threshold that gates the next stage. Each threshold is a falsifiable claim with a named next test.How far up the ladder we've climbed, the honest verdict, and the one thing blocking the next step.
Machines can already pull carbon from the sky. The challenge is doing it cheaply - and a million times bigger.Plants that pull CO2 straight from the air are running; the open question is cost per tonne and scaling from thousands to billions of tonnes.
Move beyond small plantsHundred-Thousand-Tonne Plant Next test: STRATOS must start sequestration and disclose independently verified net output through a full operating year.
The thresholds that gate the next stageWhat has to happen next
Each threshold is a falsifiable claim with a named next test; the gap chart shows how far today's metric sits from the goal.Each row is one thing that has to be proven — and how far today's number is from the target.
The record behind the verdict
Major events set large; context events set small but never hidden. Everything below the TODAY rule is a schedule, not a result.
Air Capture Reimagined
Air Capture Reimagined begins with climate dac is proposed. The result established the next question for the field.
Pilots Meet Harsh Economics
Pilots Meet Harsh Economics moved the field from aps finds six-hundred-dollar cost to liquid-solvent pilot closes loop. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
First Commercial Modules
First Commercial Modules moved the field from hinwil opens commercially to megaton design models lower cost. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
Policy-Funded Scale-Up
Policy-Funded Scale-Up moved the field from orca couples capture and storage to uk electrochemical dac plant switches on. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
The Verification Reckoning
The Verification Reckoning moved the field from iceland output gap emerges to doe cost deadline arrives. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
Events outside the declared eras
Events outside the declared eras moved the field from first modern pilot operates to iea pathway nears gigaton. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
Why the meters read the way they do
The learning curves and comparisons that justify each threshold's percentage. Every series is measured, with the source event linked in the timeline above.
Read the evidence more closely
Definitions, system boundaries and experimental caveats behind the headline record.
01Verified removal remains tiny
The first evidence-based global estimate puts 2025 DACCS removal at 0.0015 MtCO₂-about 1,500 tonnes. That is 18 times the revised 2023 quantity, but Orca and Mammoth both remained below nameplate; data covered only through October 2025.
02Sales are not delivered removals
In 2025, the voluntary market recorded 238,453 contracted DACCS credits, 848 issued and 500 retired. Contracted tonnes are future obligations, not achieved removal.
03Gross and net removal are different measures
The report's 1,500-tonne global figure measures gross atmospheric carbon transferred into durable storage minus re-release, whereas registries generally report net lifecycle removal after project emissions. These measures are not interchangeable.
04Low regeneration temperature can still use much energy
The charged-carbon sorbent's low 90-100°C regeneration temperature does not imply low system energy: its authors estimated minimum sorbent-heating demand of 1,800-3,200 kWh/tCO₂, chiefly because demonstrated capacity was low.
05Crystallizer cost reductions are modelled
The passive crystallizer used more than 9 M KOH, achieved capture flux over six times that of conventional liquid contactors, and a 100-crystallizer module averaged over three times conventional flux. Claimed 42% capital-cost and 32% levelized-cost reductions are modelled, not measured commercial costs.
06Liquid-solvent performance depends on site
A nominal 1-Mt/year liquid-solvent contactor must process roughly 57,000 m³ of air per second, while freezing conditions reduce capacity and heating inlet air costs about 0.03 MWh/tCO₂ for every kelvin of warming.
07Deep Sky's capacity figures describe different phases
Deep Sky Alpha's public capacity figures vary by phase: Alberta's funder describes four Phase-1 units totalling about 1,500 t/year expected capacity, while Deep Sky markets the completed centre at 3,000 t/year. Neither number is verified annual output.
If the remaining tests pass
Downstream capabilities, drawn dashed because they depend on results not yet in.
Who is building it-and what the money saysCapital, institutions and the global race
The teams doing the work, where they are based, and whether the money points to real delivery or only a plan.Company finance, public programmes, institutional leadership and market evidence-kept separate from valuations, forecasts and announced capacity.
DAC has attracted substantial equity and public support, but verified removal remains tiny relative to nameplate and climate-model pathways. The central race is now to turn pilots into reliable net removals with affordable clean energy, transport and durable storage.
Who is building itCompanies, laboratories and programmes
Climeworks
SwitzerlandDevelops solid-sorbent DAC and operates capture-and-storage plants with Carbfix in Iceland.
Heirloom Carbon
United StatesDevelops limestone-looping DAC designed to use renewable-powered kilns.
CarbonCapture Inc.
United StatesDevelops modular solid-sorbent DAC systems.
| Player | Country | What they are doing | Funding | Named investors | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Climeworkscompany | Switzerland | Develops solid-sorbent DAC and operates capture-and-storage plants with Carbfix in Iceland. The company reports more than $1 billion raised since inception; plant nameplate is not the same as verified removal. | 2025 additional equity: $162 million | BigPoint Holding · Partners Group · Existing investors | Source · climeworks.com |
| Heirloom Carboncompany | United States | Develops limestone-looping DAC designed to use renewable-powered kilns. | December 2024 Series B: $150 million | Future Positive · Lowercarbon Capital · Japan Airlines · Mitsubishi Corporation · Mitsui & Co. · Siemens Financial Services | Source · heirloomcarbon.com |
| CarbonCapture Inc.company | United States | Develops modular solid-sorbent DAC systems. | March 2024 Series A: $80 million | Prime Movers Lab · Amazon Climate Pledge Fund · Aramco Ventures · Siemens Financial Services · TIME Ventures | Source · carboncapture.com |
| Mission Zero Technologiescompany | United Kingdom | Develops electrochemical DAC systems for modular deployment. Its megaton objective is a future ambition, not achieved removal. | March 2024 Series A: £21.8 million | Breakthrough Energy Ventures · World Fund · Fortescue · Siemens Financial Services · 2150 | Source · missionzero.tech |
| Deep Skycompany | Canada | Develops shared test and deployment sites for multiple DAC technologies. This is a grant commitment for Deep Sky Alpha, not an equity round; the company's $130 million headline mixes funding types. | December 2024 conditional grant commitment: $40 million | Breakthrough Energy Catalyst | Source · deepskyclimate.com |
Where every number comes from
13 sources — every figure on this page traces to one.
- Lackner 1999 atmospheric extraction paperosti.gov
- APS 2011 DAC assessment summaryprinceton.edu
- Carbon Engineering 2018 process and cost papersciencedirect.com
- National Academies DAC assessmentnationalacademies.org
- IEA Direct Air Capture 2022iea.org
- DOE Carbon Negative Shotenergy.gov
- DOE Carbon Management Liftoff reportenergy.gov
- Climeworks Orca launchclimeworks.com
- Climeworks field-deployment reviewclimeworks.com
- Mammoth Puro.earth facility recordpuro.earth
- Heimildin Climeworks performance investigationheimildin.is
- Occidental Q1 2026 STRATOS transcriptoxy.com
- Occidental 2025 annual reportsec.gov