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DIRECT AIR CAPTURE

The problemsEarth & SpaceDirect Air Capture

Updated · July 2026

How close are we to pulling CO2 from the air affordably?Can we vacuum carbon out of the sky?

Can we vacuum carbon out of the sky?How close are we to pulling CO2 from the air affordably?

Plants that pull CO2 straight from the air are running; the open question is cost per tonne and scaling from thousands to billions of tonnes.Machines can already pull carbon from the sky. The challenge is doing it cheaply - and a million times bigger.

Current stageScalingScaling toward dependable, competitive operationMaking it work at useful scale
Read the evidence Where we stand
The path so far

Recorded milestones

  1. Climate-scale DAC proposed

  2. STRATOS commissioning test

Open tests · conceptual branches

TODAY
  1. OPEN TEST03 ↗
    Move beyond small plantsHundred-Thousand-Tonne PlantSTRATOS is built for 500,000 gross tonnes yearly but had not started capture by July 2026.Sustain at least 100,000 net durably stored tonnes in one year at one integrated site.
  2. OPEN TEST04 ↗
    Make removal affordableHundred-Dollar Net TonnePublic current-cost evidence remains around several hundred dollars per tonne, while $100 is a target.Deliver independently accounted capture, transport, monitoring and durable storage below $100 per net tCO2.
TODAY
OPEN TEST03 ↗
Move beyond small plantsHundred-Thousand-Tonne PlantSTRATOS is built for 500,000 gross tonnes yearly but had not started capture by July 2026.Sustain at least 100,000 net durably stored tonnes in one year at one integrated site.
OPEN TEST04 ↗
Make removal affordableHundred-Dollar Net TonnePublic current-cost evidence remains around several hundred dollars per tonne, while $100 is a target.Deliver independently accounted capture, transport, monitoring and durable storage below $100 per net tCO2.
Milestones are in recorded order. Open tests are separate questions, not a forecast.Milestones are in date order. Open tests are separate tests, not a promise.
Direct Air CaptureWhere we stand

The path shows STRATOS commissioning test. Open thresholds are separate tests in a conceptual map, not a forecast. No single percentage represents progress.

01 · Where we standWhere we stand

Where we standWhere we stand

The current stage, the evidence recorded, and the single threshold that gates the next stage.The stage reached, the evidence recorded, and the one test still blocking the next step.

What the evidence has shownWhat the evidence has shown

Machines can already pull carbon from the sky. The challenge is doing it cheaply - and a million times bigger.Plants that pull CO2 straight from the air are running; the open question is cost per tonne and scaling from thousands to billions of tonnes.

2 of 4 tests recorded2 of 4 thresholds achieved open
✓Sell captured air carbonCommercial Capture ModuleAchieved
✓Prove it stays removedVerified Durable RemovalAchieved
Move beyond small plantsHundred-Thousand-Tonne PlantOpen test
Make removal affordableHundred-Dollar Net TonneOpen test

The next testBlocking threshold

Move beyond small plantsHundred-Thousand-Tonne Plant

STRATOS must start sequestration and disclose independently verified net output through a full operating year.STRATOS must start sequestration and disclose independently verified net output through a full operating year.

02 · Thresholds & evidenceThresholds & evidence

What would count as proof?What would count as proof?

A clear test, the evidence behind it, and the limits of the claim.A clear test, the evidence behind it, and what it still leaves open.

✓Achieved · May 2017

Sell captured air carbonCommercial Capture Module

Hinwil supplied greenhouse CO2 but did not provide durable atmospheric removal.Operate a customer-facing DAC plant at hundreds of tonnes per year or more.

Recorded result Hinwil launched with 900 tCO2/year nameplate capacity.

Next test No further test; the harder threshold is verified durable removal.

SOURCE RECORD

Timeline · Hinwil opens commercially ↗

Still to demonstrateWhat this does not establishA separate system can still have different conditions and results.The named measurement has no wider implication until the supporting system test is also shown.

View every evidence record

Achieved

Sell captured air carbonCommercial Capture Module

Hinwil supplied greenhouse CO2 but did not provide durable atmospheric removal.Operate a customer-facing DAC plant at hundreds of tonnes per year or more.

Recorded result: May 2017 · Hinwil launched with 900 tCO2/year nameplate capacity.

Next test: No further test; the harder threshold is verified durable removal.

Timeline · Hinwil opens commercially ↗

Achieved

Prove it stays removedVerified Durable Removal

Puro.earth has issued audited removal certificates for Climeworks' Iceland plants.Measure net lifecycle removal and certify permanent storage through an independent standard.

Recorded result: 2024 · Mammoth's first audited 2024 output was 77.49 tCO2e, proving quality but not scale.

Next test: Publish continuous annual net-removal audits as the full Mammoth collector fleet ramps.

Mammoth Puro.earth facility record ↗

Open test

Move beyond small plantsHundred-Thousand-Tonne Plant

STRATOS is built for 500,000 gross tonnes yearly but had not started capture by July 2026.Sustain at least 100,000 net durably stored tonnes in one year at one integrated site.

Next test: STRATOS must start sequestration and disclose independently verified net output through a full operating year.

Open test

Make removal affordableHundred-Dollar Net Tonne

Public current-cost evidence remains around several hundred dollars per tonne, while $100 is a target.Deliver independently accounted capture, transport, monitoring and durable storage below $100 per net tCO2.

Next test: A commercial plant must publish audited levelized cost and lifecycle net removals at scale.

03 · The recordThe record

The record behind the verdictThe record behind the verdict

Major milestones and smaller context events share one source-linked record. Scheduled targets are marked separately from recorded events.Milestones, smaller events and setbacks share one sourced record. Scheduled targets are marked separately from recorded events.

Event key
TheoryExperimentFundingSetbackPolicyDeployment Future / scheduled
1999-20101 event1 shown

Air Capture Reimagined

Recorded event: “Climate DAC is proposed”.

2011-20162 events1 shown

Pilots Meet Harsh Economics

This record spans “APS finds six-hundred-dollar cost” to “Liquid-solvent pilot closes loop”.

2011
APS finds six-hundred-dollar costSetback
An APS assessment estimated at least $600/tCO2 for a then-buildable chemical DAC system under optimistic assumptions.
American Physical Society
2015
Liquid-solvent pilot closes loop
Carbon Engineering's Squamish pilot began end-to-end operation at roughly 1 tCO2 captured per day.
Carbon Engineering
2017-20202 events1 shown

First Commercial Modules

This record spans “Hinwil opens commercially” to “Megaton design models lower cost”.

2017
Hinwil opens commerciallyDeployment
Climeworks opened a 900 tCO2/year nameplate plant selling captured gas to a greenhouse, not durable storage.
Climeworks
2021-20247 events2 shown

Policy-Funded Scale-Up

This record spans “Orca couples capture and storage” to “UK electrochemical DAC plant switches on”.

2021
Orca couples capture and storageDeployment
Orca began operation with 4,000 t/year gross-capture nameplate and Carbfix basalt storage in Iceland.
Climeworks and Carbfix
2021
DOE sets net-removal goal
The Carbon Negative Shot targeted durable removal below $100 per net tCO2e, including capture and storage.
US Department of Energy
2022
US raises DAC creditPolicy
The Inflation Reduction Act increased 45Q support for geologically stored DAC CO2 from $50 to $180 per tonne.
US Congress
2023
Electrochemical DAC runs in continuous flow
An MIT bench system captured CO2 from 410-ppm air in a continuous-flow electrochemical cell with estimated minimum work of 65 kJ per mole. This was a component-level laboratory result, not a complete plant-energy measurement.
Hyowon Seo and T. Alan Hatton, MIT
2023
DOE selects megaton hubs
DOE selected two regional hubs for negotiations totaling up to $1.2 billion, each designed around at least 1 Mt/year.
US Department of Energy
2023
Heirloom opens Tracy facility
Heirloom opened a renewable-powered limestone DAC facility rated for up to 1,000 tCO2/year.
Heirloom Carbon Technologies
2023
UK electrochemical DAC plant switches on
Mission Zero commissioned a Sheffield plant with 50 tCO2/year nameplate capacity for synthetic-fuel research. Its captured carbon was intended for utilization and eventual re-emission, not durable removal.
Mission Zero Technologies and University of Sheffield
2025-20508 events2 shown

The Verification Reckoning

This record spans “Iceland output gap emerges” to “DOE cost deadline arrives” and includes scheduled targets.

2025
Iceland output gap emergesSetback
Records showed about 2,400 t removed since 2021 versus 12,000 t of three-year Orca nameplate; Mammoth ramp-up was slow.
Climeworks, Puro.earth and Heimildin
2025
Deep Sky stores North American DAC carbon underground
Deep Sky reported the first North American underground storage of directly air-captured CO2, using a Skyrenu unit with 50 tCO2/year nameplate capacity. The announcement did not disclose the quantity stored.
Deep Sky and Skyrenu
2025
Passive crystallizer captures without powered fans
A 100-crystallizer KOH module sustained passive capture for seven cycles over 25 days and used a later electrochemical regeneration step. The cost reductions in the paper were modeled, not measured commercial economics.
University of Toronto-led research team
2026
STRATOS finds commissioning faultSetback
After Phase 1 tests, Oxy found a non-process facility issue; both 250,000 t/year modules were built but capture had not begun.
Occidental and 1PointFive
2026
Deep Sky issues independently verified DAC creditsWe are here
Isometric independently verified and issued North America's first certified DAC removal credits from Deep Sky Alpha, also the first DAC credits carrying the Core Carbon Principles label. The public announcement did not disclose the credited tonnage.
Deep Sky, Isometric, Microsoft and RBC
2026
STRATOS targets sequestrationDeploymentTarget
Occidental still expects STRATOS to begin sequestering captured CO2 during 2026; its full nameplate is 500,000 t/year.
Occidental and 1PointFive
2030
IEA pathway reaches 85 MtDeploymentTarget
The IEA net-zero pathway requires DAC capture above 85 Mt/year in 2030, versus about 0.01 Mt/year in 2022.
International Energy Agency
2032
DOE cost deadline arrivesPolicyTarget
DOE targets less than $100 per net tCO2e across durable CDR pathways, including lifecycle accounting and storage.
US Department of Energy
2010-20505 events0 shown

Additional records

This record spans “First modern pilot operates” to “IEA pathway nears gigaton” and includes scheduled targets.

2024
Mammoth starts partial operation
Mammoth started with 12 of 72 collectors installed; 36,000 t/year was full-build nameplate, not achieved removal.
Climeworks and Carbfix
2024
Charged-carbon sorbent lowers regeneration temperature
Researchers demonstrated hydroxide-charged activated carbon that captured ambient CO2 and released it through direct Joule heating at 90-100 C. The material result was laboratory-scale and did not establish low whole-system energy or cost.
University of Cambridge, Cornell University and collaborators
2024
Project Bison pauses for lack of clean power
CarbonCapture paused its proposed Wyoming project after failing to secure enough emissions-free energy. Its announced 5 MtCO2/year by 2030 was never built or achieved.
CarbonCapture Inc.
2050
IEA pathway nears gigatonDeploymentTarget
The IEA's published 2022 net-zero pathway reaches about 980 MtCO2/year of DAC capture in 2050.
International Energy Agency
— end of record · 25 events shown —
04 · The dataThe data

The data behind the verdictThe data behind the verdict

Read each measure with its units, conditions, uncertainty and source; targets remain distinct from observations.Read each chart with its conditions, limits and source. Future targets remain distinct from recorded results.

Open figure in archive: Equipment nameplate has grown rapidly, but Hinwil used CO2 rather than storing it, Mammoth was incomplete at launch, and STRATOS had not produced by July 2026.Open figure in archive: Audited net removals remained hundreds of tonnes during ramp-up, far below Mammoth's eventual 36,000 t/year gross nameplate.Open figure in archive: The scenario requires an approximately 8,500-fold rise by 2030 and 98,000-fold rise by 2050 from the report's 2022 baseline; these are pathway values, not forecasts.Open figure in archive: Federal operating support rose 260%, but a subsidy level is not evidence that capture costs fell.Open figure in archive: Mammoth's reported first-ten-month net removal was about 0.3% of its annual full-build nameplate.Open figure in archive: The IEA's 2030 pathway is 8,500 times its reported 2022 global DAC capture level.Open figure in archive: The IRA increased the US credit for geologically stored DAC CO2 by $130 per tonne.Open figure in archive: STRATOS nameplate is 125 times Orca's, but neither number is verified annual net removal.
Estimated cost per net, durably stored tonneEstimated cost per net, durably stored tonne
Scale

APS modeled avoided-capture cost; storage excluded · 600 USD/tCO2 · 2011 · verification unspecified

Estimated cost per net, durably stored tonne over time, with measured values, projected values, and a goal at 100 USD/tCO2.1001,000Estimated cost per net, durably stored tonne · USD/tCO2Year20112020202520302032GOAL 100 · DOE 2032 Carbon Negative Shot cei…APS modeled avoided-capture…Expert-elicitation median e…Midpoint of reported $600-1…Midpoint of Climeworks' $40…DOE pathway-wide target, no…~700 USD/tCO2 to goal
NOTE - No audited time series of actual plant-level cost per net stored tonne exists publicly. The 2011 point excludes storage, 2020 is expert elicitation, 2025 is a reported range midpoint, and both future points are targets. The metric is therefore the right outcome measure but presently a weak empirical series.
View data table
All metric observations
DateValueStatusCondition / labelVerificationCICensoringSource
2011600 USD/tCO2observedAPS modeled avoided-capture cost; storage excludedunspecified—noneAPS 2011 DAC assessment summary
2020453 USD/tCO2observedExpert-elicitation median estimated net-removal costunspecified—noneMetric · Expert-elicitation median estimated net-removal cost
2025800 USD/tCO2observedMidpoint of reported $600-1,000 current industry range; not audited project costunspecified—noneMetric · Midpoint of reported $600-1,000 current industry range; not audited project cost
2030500 USD/tCO2targetMidpoint of Climeworks' $400-600 corporate net-removal targetunspecified—noneMetric · Midpoint of Climeworks' $400-600 corporate net-removal target
2032100 USD/tCO2targetDOE pathway-wide target, not a DAC forecastunspecified—noneTimeline · DOE cost deadline arrives
AS OF July 2026
View every data figure
Estimated cost per net, durably stored tonneEstimated cost per net, durably stored tonne
Scale

APS modeled avoided-capture cost; storage excluded · 600 USD/tCO2 · 2011 · verification unspecified

Estimated cost per net, durably stored tonne over time, with measured values, projected values, and a goal at 100 USD/tCO2.1001,000Estimated cost per net, durably stored tonne · USD/tCO2Year20112020202520302032GOAL 100 · DOE 2032 Carbon Negative Shot cei…APS modeled avoided-capture…Expert-elicitation median e…Midpoint of reported $600-1…Midpoint of Climeworks' $40…DOE pathway-wide target, no…~700 USD/tCO2 to goal
NOTE - No audited time series of actual plant-level cost per net stored tonne exists publicly. The 2011 point excludes storage, 2020 is expert elicitation, 2025 is a reported range midpoint, and both future points are targets. The metric is therefore the right outcome measure but presently a weak empirical series.
View data table
All metric observations
DateValueStatusCondition / labelVerificationCICensoringSource
2011600 USD/tCO2observedAPS modeled avoided-capture cost; storage excludedunspecified—noneAPS 2011 DAC assessment summary
2020453 USD/tCO2observedExpert-elicitation median estimated net-removal costunspecified—noneMetric · Expert-elicitation median estimated net-removal cost
2025800 USD/tCO2observedMidpoint of reported $600-1,000 current industry range; not audited project costunspecified—noneMetric · Midpoint of reported $600-1,000 current industry range; not audited project cost
2030500 USD/tCO2targetMidpoint of Climeworks' $400-600 corporate net-removal targetunspecified—noneMetric · Midpoint of Climeworks' $400-600 corporate net-removal target
2032100 USD/tCO2targetDOE pathway-wide target, not a DAC forecastunspecified—noneTimeline · DOE cost deadline arrives
AS OF July 2026
Equipment nameplate has grown rapidly, but Hinwil used CO2 rather than storing it, Mammoth was incomplete at launch, and STRATOS had not produced by July 2026.Equipment nameplate has grown rapidly, but Hinwil used CO2 rather than storing it, Mammoth was incomplete at launch, and STRATOS had not produced by July 2026.

Independent records

Landmark DAC plant nameplate capacity log scale · tCO2/year

log scale · tCO2/year
2017900 tCO2/year

Conditionsite, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ

20214,000 tCO2/year

Conditionsite, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ

20231,000 tCO2/year

Conditionsite, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ

202436,000 tCO2/year

Conditionsite, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ

2026500,000 tCO2/year

Conditionsite, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ

observed self-reported target / pathway right-censored lower bound
View data table
All plotted observations
SeriesDateValueStatusCondition / labelVerificationCICensoringSource
Landmark DAC plant nameplate capacity2017900 tCO2/yearobservedLandmark DAC plant nameplate capacity
site, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ		unspecified—noneTimeline · Hinwil opens commercially
Landmark DAC plant nameplate capacity20214000 tCO2/yearobservedLandmark DAC plant nameplate capacity
site, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ		unspecified—noneClimeworks Orca launch
Landmark DAC plant nameplate capacity20231000 tCO2/yearobservedLandmark DAC plant nameplate capacity
site, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ		unspecified—noneTimeline · Heirloom opens Tracy facility
Landmark DAC plant nameplate capacity202436000 tCO2/yearobservedLandmark DAC plant nameplate capacity
site, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ		unspecified—noneTimeline · Mammoth starts partial operation
Landmark DAC plant nameplate capacity2026500000 tCO2/yearobservedLandmark DAC plant nameplate capacity
site, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ		unspecified—noneSeries · Landmark DAC plant nameplate capacity
AS OF July 2026
Audited net removals remained hundreds of tonnes during ramp-up, far below Mammoth's eventual 36,000 t/year gross nameplate.Audited net removals remained hundreds of tonnes during ramp-up, far below Mammoth's eventual 36,000 t/year gross nameplate.

Independent records

Mammoth third-party verified net removals linear scale · tCO2e/year

linear scale · tCO2e/year
202477.49 tCO2e/year

Conditionsite, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ

2025278.3 tCO2e/year

Conditionsite, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ

observed self-reported target / pathway right-censored lower bound
View data table
All plotted observations
SeriesDateValueStatusCondition / labelVerificationCICensoringSource
Mammoth third-party verified net removals202477.49 tCO2e/yearobservedMammoth third-party verified net removals
site, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ		unspecified—noneSeries · Mammoth third-party verified net removals
Mammoth third-party verified net removals2025278.3 tCO2e/yearobservedMammoth third-party verified net removals
site, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ		unspecified—noneSeries · Mammoth third-party verified net removals
AS OF July 2026
The scenario requires an approximately 8,500-fold rise by 2030 and 98,000-fold rise by 2050 from the report's 2022 baseline; these are pathway values, not forecasts.The scenario requires an approximately 8,500-fold rise by 2030 and 98,000-fold rise by 2050 from the report's 2022 baseline; these are pathway values, not forecasts.

Independent records

IEA net-zero DAC capture pathway log scale · MtCO2/year

log scale · MtCO2/year
20220.01 MtCO2/year

ConditionIEA 2022 measured global DAC baseline

203085 MtCO2/year · pathway

ConditionIEA 2030 net-zero DAC pathway milestone

2050980 MtCO2/year · pathway

ConditionIEA 2050 net-zero DAC pathway milestone

observed self-reported target / pathway right-censored lower bound
View data table
All plotted observations
SeriesDateValueStatusCondition / labelVerificationCICensoringSource
IEA net-zero DAC capture pathway20220.01 MtCO2/yearobservedIEA net-zero DAC capture pathway
IEA 2022 measured global DAC baseline		unspecified—noneIEA Direct Air Capture 2022
IEA net-zero DAC capture pathway203085 MtCO2/yearpathwayIEA net-zero DAC capture pathway
IEA 2030 net-zero DAC pathway milestone		unspecified—noneIEA Direct Air Capture 2022
IEA net-zero DAC capture pathway2050980 MtCO2/yearpathwayIEA net-zero DAC capture pathway
IEA 2050 net-zero DAC pathway milestone		unspecified—noneIEA Direct Air Capture 2022
AS OF July 2026
Federal operating support rose 260%, but a subsidy level is not evidence that capture costs fell.Federal operating support rose 260%, but a subsidy level is not evidence that capture costs fell.

Independent records

US 45Q credit for geologically stored DAC CO2 linear scale · USD/tCO2

linear scale · USD/tCO2
201850 USD/tCO2

Conditionsite, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ

2022180 USD/tCO2

Conditionsite, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ

observed self-reported target / pathway right-censored lower bound
View data table
All plotted observations
SeriesDateValueStatusCondition / labelVerificationCICensoringSource
US 45Q credit for geologically stored DAC CO2201850 USD/tCO2observedUS 45Q credit for geologically stored DAC CO2
site, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ		unspecified—noneDOE Carbon Management Liftoff report
US 45Q credit for geologically stored DAC CO22022180 USD/tCO2observedUS 45Q credit for geologically stored DAC CO2
site, project or pathway record; nameplate and operating conditions differ		unspecified—noneDOE Carbon Management Liftoff report
AS OF July 2026
Mammoth's reported first-ten-month net removal was about 0.3% of its annual full-build nameplate.Mammoth's reported first-ten-month net removal was about 0.3% of its annual full-build nameplate.

Mammoth's reported first-ten-month net removal was about 0.3% of its annual full-build nameplate.

Full-build nameplate36,000 tCO2/year
First ten months net105 tCO2
Each value is scaled against zero in its own unit; bar length is not a cross-unit comparison.
View data table
All aligned comparisons
ClaimABSource / provenance
Mammoth's reported first-ten-month net removal was about 0.3% of its annual full-build nameplate.36000 tCO2/year · Full-build nameplate105 tCO2 · First ten months netHeimildin Climeworks performance investigation
AS OF July 2026
The IEA's 2030 pathway is 8,500 times its reported 2022 global DAC capture level.The IEA's 2030 pathway is 8,500 times its reported 2022 global DAC capture level.
Reported 2022 capture0.01 MtCO2/year
+84.99 MtCO2/year · gain 8,500
2030 pathway85 MtCO2/year · pathwayThis is a 2030 pathway, not a committed buildout.IEA 2030 pathway is a scenario for required scale, not a committed buildout.
Reported 2022 capture0.01 MtCO2/year
+84.99 MtCO2/year · gain 8,500
2030 pathway85 MtCO2/year · pathwayThis is a 2030 pathway, not a committed buildout.IEA 2030 pathway is a scenario for required scale, not a committed buildout.
View data table
All aligned comparisons
ClaimABSource / provenance
The IEA's 2030 pathway is 8,500 times its reported 2022 global DAC capture level.0.01 MtCO2/year · Reported 2022 capture85 MtCO2/year · 2030 pathway · pathway
This is a 2030 pathway, not a committed buildout.IEA 2030 pathway is a scenario for required scale, not a committed buildout.		IEA Direct Air Capture 2022
AS OF July 2026
The IRA increased the US credit for geologically stored DAC CO2 by $130 per tonne.The IRA increased the US credit for geologically stored DAC CO2 by $130 per tonne.
Pre-IRA 45Q50 USD/tCO2
+130 USD/tCO2 · gain 3.6
Post-IRA 45Q180 USD/tCO2

Each square = 5 USD/tCO2

Pre-IRA 45Q50 USD/tCO2
Post-IRA 45Q180 USD/tCO2
130 USD/tCO2 more from post-ira 45q than from pre-ira 45q
View data table
All aligned comparisons
ClaimABSource / provenance
The IRA increased the US credit for geologically stored DAC CO2 by $130 per tonne.50 USD/tCO2 · Pre-IRA 45Q180 USD/tCO2 · Post-IRA 45QDOE Carbon Management Liftoff report
AS OF July 2026
STRATOS nameplate is 125 times Orca's, but neither number is verified annual net removal.STRATOS nameplate is 125 times Orca's, but neither number is verified annual net removal.
Orca nameplate4,000 tCO2/year
+496,000 tCO2/year · gain 125
STRATOS nameplate500,000 tCO2/year
Orca nameplate4,000 tCO2/year
+496,000 tCO2/year · gain 125
STRATOS nameplate500,000 tCO2/year
View data table
All aligned comparisons
ClaimABSource / provenance
STRATOS nameplate is 125 times Orca's, but neither number is verified annual net removal.4000 tCO2/year · Orca nameplate500000 tCO2/year · STRATOS nameplateComparison · STRATOS nameplate is 125 times Orca's, but neither number is verified annual net removal.
AS OF July 2026

Methods & conditions

Under the measurement.

The boundary of a measurement changes what it means.

Technical note 1 of 7

Verified removal remains tiny

Method and conditions

The first evidence-based global estimate puts 2025 DACCS removal at 0.0015 MtCO₂-about 1,500 tonnes. That is 18 times the revised 2023 quantity, but Orca and Mammoth both remained below nameplate; data covered only through October 2025.

Source notes
State of Carbon Dioxide Removal 2026

Technical notes and sources

Each note keeps its authored method, conditions and citations available for review.

Verified removal remains tiny

The first evidence-based global estimate puts 2025 DACCS removal at 0.0015 MtCO₂-about 1,500 tonnes. That is 18 times the revised 2023 quantity, but Orca and Mammoth both remained below nameplate; data covered only through October 2025.

State of Carbon Dioxide Removal 2026
Sales are not delivered removals

In 2025, the voluntary market recorded 238,453 contracted DACCS credits, 848 issued and 500 retired. Contracted tonnes are future obligations, not achieved removal.

State of Carbon Dioxide Removal 2026, Table 4.2
Gross and net removal are different measures

The report's 1,500-tonne global figure measures gross atmospheric carbon transferred into durable storage minus re-release, whereas registries generally report net lifecycle removal after project emissions. These measures are not interchangeable.

State of Carbon Dioxide Removal 2026
Low regeneration temperature can still use much energy

The charged-carbon sorbent's low 90-100°C regeneration temperature does not imply low system energy: its authors estimated minimum sorbent-heating demand of 1,800-3,200 kWh/tCO₂, chiefly because demonstrated capacity was low.

Nature
Crystallizer cost reductions are modelled

The passive crystallizer used more than 9 M KOH, achieved capture flux over six times that of conventional liquid contactors, and a 100-crystallizer module averaged over three times conventional flux. Claimed 42% capital-cost and 32% levelized-cost reductions are modelled, not measured commercial costs.

Nature Chemical Engineering
Liquid-solvent performance depends on site

A nominal 1-Mt/year liquid-solvent contactor must process roughly 57,000 m³ of air per second, while freezing conditions reduce capacity and heating inlet air costs about 0.03 MWh/tCO₂ for every kelvin of warming.

Communications Earth & Environment
Deep Sky's capacity figures describe different phases

Deep Sky Alpha's public capacity figures vary by phase: Alberta's funder describes four Phase-1 units totalling about 1,500 t/year expected capacity, while Deep Sky markets the completed centre at 3,000 t/year. Neither number is verified annual output.

Emissions Reduction Alberta Deep Sky
05 · What it unlocksWhat it unlocks

If the remaining tests pass.If the remaining tests pass.

Downstream capabilities remain conditional on results that are not yet in.These are possible next capabilities, conditional on results that are not yet in.

TODAY
  1. PASSED · May 201701 ↗
    Sell captured air carbonCommercial Capture ModuleHinwil supplied greenhouse CO2 but did not provide durable atmospheric removal.Operate a customer-facing DAC plant at hundreds of tonnes per year or more.
  2. PASSED · 202402 ↗
    Prove it stays removedVerified Durable RemovalPuro.earth has issued audited removal certificates for Climeworks' Iceland plants.Measure net lifecycle removal and certify permanent storage through an independent standard.
  3. OPEN TEST03 ↗
    Move beyond small plantsHundred-Thousand-Tonne PlantSTRATOS is built for 500,000 gross tonnes yearly but had not started capture by July 2026.Sustain at least 100,000 net durably stored tonnes in one year at one integrated site.
  4. OPEN TEST04 ↗
    Make removal affordableHundred-Dollar Net TonnePublic current-cost evidence remains around several hundred dollars per tonne, while $100 is a target.Deliver independently accounted capture, transport, monitoring and durable storage below $100 per net tCO2.
PASSED · May 201701 ↗
Sell captured air carbonCommercial Capture ModuleHinwil supplied greenhouse CO2 but did not provide durable atmospheric removal.Operate a customer-facing DAC plant at hundreds of tonnes per year or more.
PASSED · 202402 ↗
Prove it stays removedVerified Durable RemovalPuro.earth has issued audited removal certificates for Climeworks' Iceland plants.Measure net lifecycle removal and certify permanent storage through an independent standard.
TODAY
OPEN TEST03 ↗
Move beyond small plantsHundred-Thousand-Tonne PlantSTRATOS is built for 500,000 gross tonnes yearly but had not started capture by July 2026.Sustain at least 100,000 net durably stored tonnes in one year at one integrated site.
OPEN TEST04 ↗
Make removal affordableHundred-Dollar Net TonnePublic current-cost evidence remains around several hundred dollars per tonne, while $100 is a target.Deliver independently accounted capture, transport, monitoring and durable storage below $100 per net tCO2.

Possible, if the open tests pass.

  1. Neutralize residual emissions

    This is a possible benefit only if neutralize residual emissions works safely, reliably and at useful scale.Potential benefit only if the stated use (Neutralize residual emissions) is demonstrated with evidence for safety, reliability, affordability and scale.

  2. Draw down legacy carbon

    This is a possible benefit only if draw down legacy carbon works safely, reliably and at useful scale.Potential benefit only if the stated use (Draw down legacy carbon) is demonstrated with evidence for safety, reliability, affordability and scale.

  3. Closed-loop carbon feedstock

    This is a possible benefit only if closed-loop carbon feedstock works safely, reliably and at useful scale.Potential benefit only if the stated use (Closed-loop carbon feedstock) is demonstrated with evidence for safety, reliability, affordability and scale.

These are possible outcomes, if the open tests pass. They are conditional, not promises.
06 · The players & the moneyThe players & the money

Meet the builders.Meet the builders.

The organisations, their approaches, and the evidence behind them.The teams doing the work, the money around them, and what the record can support.

Switzerland · company

Climeworks

Develops solid-sorbent DAC and operates capture-and-storage plants with Carbfix in Iceland.

Funding context2025 additional equity: $162 millionThe company reports more than $1 billion raised since inception; plant nameplate is not the same as verified removal.
Named investorsBigPoint Holding · Partners Group · Existing investors

Capital is context, not a demonstration.

Company source ↗
View every builder record

Climeworks

Switzerland · company · Develops solid-sorbent DAC and operates capture-and-storage plants with Carbfix in Iceland.

Funding: 2025 additional equity: $162 million

Named investors: BigPoint Holding · Partners Group · Existing investors

The company reports more than $1 billion raised since inception; plant nameplate is not the same as verified removal.

Company source ↗

Heirloom Carbon

United States · company · Develops limestone-looping DAC designed to use renewable-powered kilns.

Funding: December 2024 Series B: $150 million

Named investors: Future Positive · Lowercarbon Capital · Japan Airlines · Mitsubishi Corporation · Mitsui & Co. · Siemens Financial Services

Company source ↗

CarbonCapture Inc.

United States · company · Develops modular solid-sorbent DAC systems.

Funding: March 2024 Series A: $80 million

Named investors: Prime Movers Lab · Amazon Climate Pledge Fund · Aramco Ventures · Siemens Financial Services · TIME Ventures

Company source ↗

Mission Zero Technologies

United Kingdom · company · Develops electrochemical DAC systems for modular deployment.

Funding: March 2024 Series A: £21.8 million

Named investors: Breakthrough Energy Ventures · World Fund · Fortescue · Siemens Financial Services · 2150

Its megaton objective is a future ambition, not achieved removal.

Company source ↗

Deep Sky

Canada · company · Develops shared test and deployment sites for multiple DAC technologies.

Funding: December 2024 conditional grant commitment: $40 million

Named investors: Breakthrough Energy Catalyst

This is a grant commitment for Deep Sky Alpha, not an equity round; the company's $130 million headline mixes funding types.

Company source ↗
07 · SourcesSources

Follow the evidence.Follow the evidence.

50 sources — every figure on this page traces to one.50 sources — every figure on this page traces to one.

Source · what this page citesScope and limits
  1. 01

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  2. 02

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  3. 03

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  4. 04

    National Academies DAC assessment

    Read source ↗nationalacademies.org

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  5. 05

    IEA Direct Air Capture 2022

    Read source ↗iea.org
    Used on this page
    All 11 uses across 8 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  6. 06

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  7. 07

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  8. 08

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  9. 09

    Climeworks field-deployment review

    Read source ↗climeworks.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  10. 10

    Mammoth Puro.earth facility record

    Read source ↗puro.earth
    Used on this page
    All 1 use across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  11. 11

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  12. 12

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  13. 13

    Occidental 2025 annual report

    Read source ↗sec.gov
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  14. 14

    Timeline · First modern pilot operates

    Read source ↗sciencedirect.com
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  15. 15

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  16. 16

    Timeline · Electrochemical DAC runs in continuous flow

    Read source ↗nature.com
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  17. 17

    Timeline · DOE selects megaton hubs

    Read source ↗energy.gov
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  18. 18

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  19. 19

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  20. 20

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  21. 21

    Timeline · Charged-carbon sorbent lowers regeneration temperature

    Read source ↗nature.com
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  22. 22

    Timeline · Project Bison pauses for lack of clean power

    Read source ↗eenews.net
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  23. 23

    Timeline · Deep Sky stores North American DAC carbon underground

    Read source ↗deepskyclimate.com
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  24. 24

    Timeline · Passive crystallizer captures without powered fans

    Read source ↗nature.com
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  25. 25

    Timeline · Deep Sky issues independently verified DAC credits

    Read source ↗deepskyclimate.com
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  26. 26

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  27. 27

    Metric · Expert-elicitation median estimated net-removal cost

    Read source ↗frontiersin.org
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  28. 28

    Metric · Midpoint of reported $600-1,000 current industry range; not audited project cost

    Read source ↗lemonde.fr
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  29. 29

    Metric · Midpoint of Climeworks' $400-600 corporate net-removal target

    Read source ↗climeworks.com
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  30. 30

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  31. 31

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  32. 32

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  33. 33

    Comparison · STRATOS nameplate is 125 times Orca's, but neither number is verified annual net removal.

    Read source ↗iea.org
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  34. 34

    Engineer note · Verified removal remains tiny

    Read source ↗stateofcdr.org
    Used on this page
    All 1 use across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  35. 35

    Engineer note · Liquid-solvent performance depends on site

    Read source ↗nature.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  36. 36

    Engineer note · Deep Sky's capacity figures describe different phases

    Read source ↗eralberta.ca

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  37. 37

    Engineer note · Deep Sky's capacity figures describe different phases

    Read source ↗deepskyclimate.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  38. 38

    companies · Climeworks

    Read source ↗climeworks.com
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  39. 39

    companies · Heirloom Carbon

    Read source ↗heirloomcarbon.com
    Used on this page
    All 3 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  40. 40

    companies · CarbonCapture Inc.

    Read source ↗carboncapture.com
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  41. 41

    companies · Mission Zero Technologies

    Read source ↗missionzero.tech
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  42. 42

    companies · Deep Sky

    Read source ↗deepskyclimate.com
    Used on this page
    All 3 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  43. 43

    people · Christoph Gebald

    Read source ↗climeworks.com
    Used on this page
    All 2 uses across 2 destinations

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  44. 44

    people · Klaus Lackner

    Read source ↗newsroom.asu.edu
    Used on this page
    All 1 use across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  45. 45

    geography · United States

    Read source ↗energy.gov
    Used on this page
    All 1 use across 1 destination

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  46. 46

    Climeworks official site

    Read source ↗climeworks.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  47. 47

    Heirloom Carbon official site

    Read source ↗heirloomcarbon.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  48. 48

    CarbonCapture Inc. official site

    Read source ↗carboncapture.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  49. 49

    Mission Zero Technologies official site

    Read source ↗missionzero.tech

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

  50. 50

    Deep Sky official site

    Read source ↗deepskyclimate.com

    Scope: Not recorded. Limit: Not recorded.

Sources describe evidence. Inclusion is not endorsement.