How close are we to room-temperature superconductors?Can electricity flow with no resistance at room temperature?
or, simply: Can electricity flow with no resistance at room temperature?or, precisely: How close are we to room-temperature superconductors?
Superconductivity near room temperature has only been credibly observed under megabar pressures; every ambient-pressure room-temperature claim has failed replication or been retracted.Materials squeezed to crushing pressures lose resistance when nearly warm, but nothing verified works in an ordinary room — and the loudest recent claims turned out to be wrong.
We are here
Ambient record inches to 151 K via pressure quench — A University of Houston team reported pressure-quenched Hg-1223 retains superconductivity to about 151 K after the applied pressure is removed — raising the ambient record, but still roughly 140 K below room temperature and not yet widely replicated. Next up — Target: an independently replicated ambient room-temp material (expected 2035).
01 · Where we stand
Four tests between here and the goal
Each threshold is a falsifiable claim with a named next test. We move the meter only when a result is public.
Superconductivity above 0°C at any pressureBeat the freezing point of water, even inside a viseIn progress
65%
Next testIndependent diamond-anvil replication of any superhydride claim above 273 K
Ambient-pressure room-temperature demonstrationProve it works in a normal roomEarly
5%
Next testIndependent replication of pressure-quenched Hg-1223 at 151 K (Houston, 2026)
Manufacturable room-temperature conductorTurn it into affordable wireEarly
0%
Next testAwaits a verified ambient material; REBCO tape scale-up for fusion magnets is the nearest proxy
THRESHOLDS — Thresholds for Room-temp Superconductors.
Scale
Measured Goal region
NOTE — The two highest points (H3S, LaH10) require ~155–170 GPa — over a million atmospheres. The ambient-pressure record is still just 133 K; the retracted 2020 room-temperature claim is excluded.
02 · How we got here
The record behind the verdict
Major events set large; context events set small but never hidden. Everything below the TODAY rule is a schedule, not a result.
The low-temperature era moved the field from superconductivity discovered to nb3sn enables practical high-field magnets. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
1911
Superconductivity discoveredExperiment
Heike Kamerlingh Onnes found that mercury's electrical resistance vanished completely at 4.2 K while cooling it with liquid helium.
Bardeen, Cooper and Schrieffer explained conventional superconductivity as electrons binding into Cooper pairs via lattice vibrations, work that later won the 1972 Nobel Prize.
The low-temperature alloy Nb3Sn carried large currents in strong magnetic fields, launching the superconducting-magnet industry still used in MRI and particle accelerators.
The cuprate high-Tc revolution moved the field from cuprate revolution begins to mercury cuprate sets 133 k ambient record. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
1986
Cuprate revolution beginsExperiment
Bednorz and Müller discovered superconductivity near 30 K in a lanthanum-barium-copper-oxide ceramic, breaking the perceived Tc ceiling and opening the high-temperature era.
YBa2Cu3O7 superconducted at about 93 K, the first material above liquid nitrogen's 77 K boiling point, making superconductivity far cheaper to demonstrate.
A mercury-barium-calcium-copper-oxide superconducted up to about 133 K at ambient pressure, a room-pressure record that then stood for roughly three decades.
The high-pressure hydride era moved the field from hydrogen sulfide superconducts at 203 k — under extreme pressure to csh 288 k 'room-temperature' claim (later retracted). The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
2015
Hydrogen sulfide superconducts at 203 K — under extreme pressureExperiment
H3S superconducted at 203 K but ONLY at about 155 GPa, roughly 1.5 million atmospheres inside a diamond anvil cell, so it is not usable at everyday pressure.
CSH 288 K 'room-temperature' claim (later retracted)
A group claimed room-temperature superconductivity at 288 K in carbonaceous sulfur hydride at ~267 GPa — a claim whose non-standard data handling was disputed and never independently confirmed.
The ambient-pressure push moved the field from lk-99 ambient claim collapses to target: an independently replicated ambient room-temp material. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
2023
LK-99 ambient claim collapsesSetback
A viral claim of an ambient-pressure, room-temperature superconductor called LK-99 was debunked within weeks, its apparent effects traced to Cu2S impurities.
Ambient record inches to 151 K via pressure quenchExperimentWe are here
A University of Houston team reported pressure-quenched Hg-1223 retains superconductivity to about 151 K after the applied pressure is removed — raising the ambient record, but still roughly 140 K below room temperature and not yet widely replicated.
Target: an independently replicated ambient room-temp materialExperimentTarget
A superconductor working near 293 K at ordinary pressure, confirmed by multiple independent labs, would be the first genuine room-temperature superconductor rather than a disputed claim. None exists today.
Events outside the declared eras moved the field from nature retracts the csh room-temperature paper to target: a manufacturable room-temperature conductor. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
2022
Nature retracts the CSH room-temperature paper
Nature retracted the 2020 CSH paper over concerns about its magnetic-susceptibility data, and further papers were retracted in 2023, so this was never a valid record.
Target: a manufacturable room-temperature conductorDeploymentTarget
A room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor produced as usable wire or tape at scale would transform grids, transport and electronics. Aspirational; no such material exists.
The learning curves and comparisons that justify each threshold's percentage. Every series is measured, with the source event linked in the timeline above.
The Tc climb
A record split by pressure
133 Kambient-pressure record
Ambient pressureHigh pressure · ~155–170 GPa273 K goal
NOTE — The two highest points (H3S, LaH10) require ~155–170 GPa — over a million atmospheres. The ambient-pressure record is still just 133 K; the retracted 2020 room-temperature claim is excluded.
04 · What it unlocks
If the remaining tests pass
Downstream capabilities, drawn dashed because they depend on results not yet in.