How close are we to general-purpose robotics?When will robots handle everyday work?
or, simply: When will robots handle everyday work?or, precisely: How close are we to general-purpose robotics?
Legged locomotion is essentially solved, but dexterous manipulation and open-world autonomy are not, so today's factory and home robots run narrow, supervised, and heavily teleoperated.Robots can walk, run and keep their balance beautifully now. The hard part left is hands and judgment: doing varied tasks all day, safely, without a human quietly steering.
Figure 03 deploys for logistics at BMW Spartanburg — After the Figure 02 pilot, BMW put Figure 03 to work on complex logistics sequencing at Spartanburg, an expanded but still narrow, supervised deployment. Next up — First Neo units ship to homes (expected 2026).
Four tests between here and the goal
Each threshold is a falsifiable claim with a named next test. We move the meter only when a result is public.
The record behind the verdict
Major events set large; context events set small but never hidden. Everything below the TODAY rule is a schedule, not a result.
Fixed industrial arms
Fixed industrial arms begins with unimate, the first industrial robot, joins a gm line. The result established the next question for the field.
Dynamic legged locomotion
Dynamic legged locomotion moved the field from honda unveils asimo to darpa robotics challenge finals (and the falls). The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
The vision-language-action turn
The vision-language-action turn moved the field from boston dynamics atlas runs parkour to google deepmind's rt-2 vision-language-action model. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
General-purpose humanoids
General-purpose humanoids moved the field from physical intelligence pi-0.5 generalizes to new homes to first neo units ship to homes. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
Events outside the declared eras
Events outside the declared eras moved the field from unitree g1 drops to $16,000 to tesla's stated goal: mass humanoid manufacturing. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
Why the meters read the way they do
The learning curves and comparisons that justify each threshold's percentage. Every series is measured, with the source event linked in the timeline above.
Capability gates
The route to useful robot labor
A staged journey, not one magic percentage
Each gate unlocks the next kind of work. Solid means demonstrated; the highlighted frontier is the first unachieved gate; dashed, faded gates are downstream requirements.
GATE 01
Dynamic locomotion & balanceWalk, run and keep balance like an animal
Robust bipedal walking, running and whole-body recovery over uneven terrain
✓ ACHIEVED · 2024PROVEN BYRL whole-body control; Atlas, Unitree and others walk, run and recover from shoves
WE ARE HERE GATE 02
Dexterous manipulationHandle unfamiliar objects and tools
Transfer fine-motor skills across unfamiliar objects, tools and cluttered scenes
PROGRESS30%WHAT UNLOCKS THE NEXT GATEIndependent long-horizon manipulation trials on tools and deformable objects, e.g. pi-0.6 field runs
GATE 03
Open-world autonomyWork for hours without a human steering
Complete multi-hour tasks safely with rare human intervention or teleoperation
PROGRESS15%WHAT UNLOCKS THE NEXT GATEPublished intervention-rate and uptime data from paid deployments
GATE 04
Labor economicsCost less than the work is worth
Fully-loaded cost per useful hour competitive with human labor
PROGRESS12%WHAT UNLOCKS THE NEXT GATEMulti-site customers renew deployments without vendor operators on site
If the remaining tests pass
Downstream capabilities, drawn dashed because they depend on results not yet in.