Climate · Updated July 2026Momentum · accelerating ↗
How close are we to pulling CO2 from the air affordably?Can we vacuum carbon out of the sky?
or, simply: Can we vacuum carbon out of the sky?or, precisely: How close are we to pulling CO2 from the air affordably?
Plants that pull CO2 straight from the air are running; the open question is cost per tonne and scaling from thousands to billions of tonnes.Machines can already pull carbon from the sky. The challenge is doing it cheaply — and a million times bigger.
We are here
STRATOS finds commissioning fault — After Phase 1 tests, Oxy found a non-process facility issue; both 250,000 t/year modules were built but capture had not begun. Next up — STRATOS targets sequestration (expected 2026).
01 · Where we stand
Four tests between here and the goal
Each threshold is a falsifiable claim with a named next test. We move the meter only when a result is public.
Commercial Capture ModuleSell captured air carbon✓ Achieved · May 2017
100%
Proven byHinwil launched with 900 tCO2/year nameplate capacity.
Verified Durable RemovalProve it stays removed✓ Achieved · 2024
100%
Proven byMammoth's first audited 2024 output was 77.49 tCO2e, proving quality but not scale.
Hundred-Thousand-Tonne PlantMove beyond small plantsIn progress
55%
Next testSTRATOS must start sequestration and disclose independently verified net output through a full operating year.
Hundred-Dollar Net TonneMake removal affordableEarly
20%
Next testA commercial plant must publish audited levelized cost and lifecycle net removals at scale.
THRESHOLDS — Thresholds for Direct Air Capture.
Scale
Measured Projected Goal region
NOTE — No audited time series of actual plant-level cost per net stored tonne exists publicly. The 2011 point excludes storage, 2020 is expert elicitation, 2025 is a reported range midpoint, and both future points are targets. The metric is therefore the right outcome measure but presently a weak empirical series.
02 · How we got here
The record behind the verdict
Major events set large; context events set small but never hidden. Everything below the TODAY rule is a schedule, not a result.
Pilots Meet Harsh Economics moved the field from aps finds six-hundred-dollar cost to liquid-solvent pilot closes loop. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
2011
APS finds six-hundred-dollar costSetback
An APS assessment estimated at least $600/tCO2 for a then-buildable chemical DAC system under optimistic assumptions.
First Commercial Modules moved the field from hinwil opens commercially to megaton design models lower cost. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
2017
Hinwil opens commerciallyDeployment
Climeworks opened a 900 tCO2/year nameplate plant selling captured gas to a greenhouse, not durable storage.
Policy-Funded Scale-Up moved the field from orca couples capture and storage to heirloom opens tracy facility. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
2021
Orca couples capture and storageDeployment
Orca began operation with 4,000 t/year gross-capture nameplate and Carbfix basalt storage in Iceland.
The Verification Reckoning moved the field from iceland output gap emerges to doe cost deadline arrives. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
2025
Iceland output gap emergesSetback
Records showed about 2,400 t removed since 2021 versus 12,000 t of three-year Orca nameplate; Mammoth ramp-up was slow.
Events outside the declared eras moved the field from first modern pilot operates to iea pathway nears gigaton. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
2010
First modern pilot operates
Global Thermostat began operating a solid-sorbent DAC pilot at SRI International in California.
The learning curves and comparisons that justify each threshold's percentage. Every series is measured, with the source event linked in the timeline above.
The scale gulf
The distance between a plant and a planet
1960×to climate scale
NOTE — Nameplate capacity and pathway values are placed together only after converting the IEA series from megatonnes to tonnes; nameplate is not verified net removal.
Audited net removals remained hundreds of tonnes during ramp-up, far below Mammoth's eventual 36,000 t/year gross nameplate.NOTE — Audited net removals remained hundreds of tonnes during ramp-up, far below Mammoth's eventual 36,000 t/year gross nameplate.Federal operating support rose 260%, but a subsidy level is not evidence that capture costs fell.NOTE — Federal operating support rose 260%, but a subsidy level is not evidence that capture costs fell.
Full-build nameplate36000 tCO2/year
First ten months net105 tCO2
COMPARISON — Mammoth's reported first-ten-month net removal was about 0.3% of its annual full-build nameplate.
Reported 2022 capture0.01 MtCO2/year
2030 pathway85 MtCO2/year
COMPARISON — The IEA's 2030 pathway is 8,500 times its reported 2022 global DAC capture level.
Pre-IRA 45Q50 USD/tCO2
Post-IRA 45Q180 USD/tCO2
COMPARISON — The IRA increased the US credit for geologically stored DAC CO2 by $130 per tonne.
Orca nameplate4000 tCO2/year
STRATOS nameplate500000 tCO2/year
COMPARISON — STRATOS nameplate is 125 times Orca's, but neither number is verified annual net removal.
04 · What it unlocks
If the remaining tests pass
Downstream capabilities, drawn dashed because they depend on results not yet in.