Space · Updated July 2026Momentum · accelerating ↗
How close are we to cheap space launch?When does a ride to orbit get cheap?
or, simply: When does a ride to orbit get cheap?or, precisely: How close are we to cheap space launch?
Reusable first stages have cut the price of orbit by more than 90% since the Shuttle, but the sub-$100/kg goal depends on rapid full reuse that Starship has not yet demonstrated.Rockets can now land and fly again, which made space far cheaper — but the truly cheap ticket needs a whole rocket you can reuse in days, and nobody has that yet.
We are here
Starship V3 flies and deploys satellites (Flight 12) — Flight 12 was the first flight of the larger Starship Version 3, deploying 20 Starlink mass simulators plus two functional V3-class satellites — though the booster landing was not achieved. Next up — First upper-stage (Ship) tower catch attempt (expected 2027).
01 · Where we stand
Four tests between here and the goal
Each threshold is a falsifiable claim with a named next test. We move the meter only when a result is public.
Reusable first-stage launchLand the big first stage and fly it again✓ Achieved · Mar 2017
100%
Proven byFalcon 9 first reflight; list price ~$3,000/kg vs ~$54,500/kg on the Shuttle
Rapid full reuseReuse the whole rocket, fastEarly
35%
Next testFirst Starship upper-stage (Ship) tower-catch attempt, targeted for Flight 13/14 in 2026
Sub-$100/kg commodity priceMake the ticket to orbit truly cheapEarly
12%
Next testFully-reusable Starship reaching high cadence and publishing commercial pricing below $1,000/kg
THRESHOLDS — Thresholds for Cheap Space Launch.
Scale
Measured Projected Goal region
NOTE — Starship's ~$100/kg is a design target that depends on unproven reuse cadence, not an achieved price — shown as projected.
02 · How we got here
The record behind the verdict
Major events set large; context events set small but never hidden. Everything below the TODAY rule is a schedule, not a result.
The expendable era — high $/kg begins with sputnik 1 — first orbital launch. The result established the next question for the field.
1957
Sputnik 1 — first orbital launchDeployment
The Soviet R-7 placed the first artificial satellite in orbit, opening the era of fully expendable rockets thrown away after a single flight at very high cost per kilogram.
The Shuttle's false promise of reuse moved the field from space shuttle first flight (sts-1) to dc-x delta clipper vertical landing. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
1981
Space Shuttle first flight (STS-1)Deployment
Columbia flew the first reusable orbiter, but reuse did not lower cost — refurbishing the orbiter and boosters between flights was so labor-intensive that per-launch cost stayed roughly $1B+, higher than many expendables.
The DC-X prototype demonstrated vertical takeoff and vertical powered landing for the first time, an early proof-of-concept for reusable boosters that later inspired Falcon 9 and New Shepard.
Partial reuse — Falcon 9 moved the field from falcon 1 reaches orbit to starlink drives rapid falcon 9 reuse. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
2008
Falcon 1 reaches orbitExperiment
On its fourth attempt Falcon 1 became the first privately developed liquid-fueled rocket to reach orbit, proving a startup could build an orbital launcher and keeping SpaceX alive.
SpaceX relaunched a previously flown Falcon 9 first stage to orbit and landed it again — the first reuse of an orbital booster, the moment reusability savings began moving from promised to demonstrated.
Falcon Heavy flew for the first time and landed its two side boosters simultaneously, briefly the most capable operational rocket and extending reuse to heavy lift.
SpaceX began launching its own Starlink constellation on reused Falcon 9 boosters, building the high-cadence operations that turned reusability into real, measured cost reduction (individual boosters now exceed 20+ flights).
Toward full reuse — Starship moved the field from starship first integrated flight test to full rapid reuse of both stages. The results narrowed the next question without closing it.
2023
Starship first integrated flight test
The first full Starship + Super Heavy stack lifted off but lost multiple engines, failed to separate, and was destroyed about four minutes in — an explosive but data-rich first attempt at a fully reusable super-heavy rocket.
First Super Heavy tower catch (Flight 5)Experiment
On Flight 5 the Super Heavy booster flew back to the launch site and was caught in mid-air by the tower's 'chopstick' arms — the first catch of an orbital-class booster and a key step toward rapid reuse.
After a run of upper-stage failures earlier in 2025, Flight 10 successfully deployed eight Starlink mass simulators and completed a controlled splashdown — the first successful payload deploy from Starship.
Starship V3 flies and deploys satellites (Flight 12)DeploymentWe are here
Flight 12 was the first flight of the larger Starship Version 3, deploying 20 Starlink mass simulators plus two functional V3-class satellites — though the booster landing was not achieved.
First upper-stage (Ship) tower catch attemptExperimentTarget
Planned milestone: catching the returning Starship upper stage at the tower the way the booster already is — the still-unproven half of full reusability. Date and success are not yet established.
Target: routinely reflying both the Super Heavy booster and Starship with minimal refurbishment — the actual mechanism by which launch cost is meant to fall dramatically. Not yet demonstrated.
Events outside the declared eras begins with target: sub-$100/kg to orbit. The result established the next question for the field.
2030
Target: sub-$100/kg to orbitDeploymentTarget
Long-stated aspirational goal of driving marginal launch cost below roughly $100 per kilogram — repeatedly promised for Starship but not yet realized or independently verified.
The learning curves and comparisons that justify each threshold's percentage. Every series is measured, with the source event linked in the timeline above.
$/kg descent
The price of orbit keeps falling
15×best observed ÷ goal
Observed priceProjected targetGoal line
NOTE — Starship's ~$100/kg is a design target that depends on unproven reuse cadence, not an achieved price — shown as projected.
04 · What it unlocks
If the remaining tests pass
Downstream capabilities, drawn dashed because they depend on results not yet in.